Since late 2012, the Bank of Japan has launched an all-out war to devalue their currency. Why? As outlined previously, Japan faces two ticking time bombs of mounting debts and worsening demographics. The implications of these forces for the...
And so it begins… Collapsing crude prices are starting to make their way through the North American energy sector, as the most unprofitable oil & gas rigs are mothballed. Those flashing red numbers are not just on your screen any more.
The holiday-shortened week has begun. Some causes of consternation have eased. Oil prices are firmer after the pre-weekend recovery. The Russian ruble, where the focus has been greater than the exposure, has continued to recover following signs that China may be willing to offer it more assistance.
Geopolitical turmoil, ongoing strength in the dollar that crimps sales and earnings prospects for U.S. multinationals, currency wars/crises, systemic dislocations, and the onset of deflation in the eurozone and elsewhere are additional factors carrying downside risk for the U.S. stock market outlook.
It was just a week ago that financial headlines bemoaned the market having suffered its worst week in 2 ½ years. The bears came out of hiding with scary forecasts. Plunging oil prices, previously thought to be a positive for global economies...
Vladimir Putin would have been well advised to study the lessons of the Suez crisis before he invaded Crimea. Like Anthony Eden of Great Britain he is beginning to realize that economic warfare can be more ruthlessly destructive than military might.
The Latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for November is now available. The index rose 0.6 percent to 105.5. October was revised to downward 104.9 percent (2004 = 100). The latest number came in slightly above the 0.5 percent forecast by Investing.com.
Break-even rates are the difference between treasuries and the same-duration Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). The break-even rate turned negative yesterday for the first time since 2009.
With two reports a day, and often more, readers sometimes complain that keeping tabs on the thoughts of the various Gavekal analysts can be a challenge. So as the year draws to a close, it may be helpful if we recap the main questions confronting investors and the themes we strongly believe in, region by region.
The world’s prominent central banks are pursuing an accommodative monetary policy and this bodes well for the stock market. Remember, when it comes to investing, monetary policy trumps everything else and the risk free rate of return determines the value of every asset.
The RecessionALERT Valuation Index (RAVI) is a multifactor valuation model that examines cyclically adjusted trailing SP-500 earnings (various multi-decade horizons), the SP-500 total-return index level, total stock market capitalization...