Financial Sense

The Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Personal Income for October
Doug Short's picture

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.

Swiss Bank Hits Customers With Negative Interest Rates; Crazy? What About Velocity?
Michael Shedlock's picture

Alternative Bank Schweiz (ABS), a small bank in Switzerland broke the negative interest rate on deposits barrier, CHARGING customers to cake their money. (emphasis in caps from the article). "The Alternative Bank Schweiz wrote to customers telling them they would face a -0.125 per cent...

Geopolitical Tension Tops Revised GDP
Sheraz Mian's picture

The major indexes are on track to for a weak open, with heightened geopolitical tension superceding the positive revision to the Q3 GDP growth pace. The Middle East is a complicated region in the best of the times and it has become even more so with the rise of ISIS and the entry of Russia in the...

Richard Russell: The Passing of an Icon
FS Staff's picture

It is with great sadness that we report the passing of Richard Lion Russell on Saturday, November 21. Richard wrote for Dow Theory Letters almost every day of his adult life, mailing the letter out faithfully every ten days to three weeks beginning in 1958...

Matthew Mather's Darknet Shows Reality Is Not Far From Fiction
FS Staff's picture

Last week, Financial Sense interviewed Matthew Mather, a former tech CEO turned best-selling author of novels such as CyberStorm, Darknet, and most recently Nomad. Mather’s books explore the dark possibilities of new technologies, ranging from cyberwarfare...

Oil Jobs Lost: 250,000 and Counting, Texas Likely to See Massive Layoffs Soon
Oil Price's picture

Crude oil just capped off a third straight week of declines, as WTI nears the $40 per barrel threshold. Goldman Sachs is once again raising the possibility of oil dipping into the $20s per barrel. That spells more pain for the energy sector. Many companies have already slashed spending and...

Mission Accomplished
Tim Duy PhD's picture

Federal Reserve policymakers have pretty much taken all of the mystery out of this next meeting. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer, via Reuters, "In the relatively near future probably some major central banks will begin gradually moving away from near-zero interest rates...

Is it Time to Get Defensive?
Matthew Kerkhoff's picture

The S&P 500 is mostly flat for the year, but beneath the surface there has been a lot of movement. Some sectors, such as consumer discretionary, have pulled the major index up, while others are acting as a counterweight. The chart below shows YTD performance for each of the nine...

The Fundamental Truth of the Market Matter
Patrick O'Hare's picture

When 2014 was coming to an end, we published our Market View for 2015. In that piece, we said our expectation for 2015 was that market gains would track closer to earnings per share (EPS) growth. At the time, analysts' average estimate pegged 2015 EPS growth at 8.8%, according to...

Epsilon Theory: Two Discoveries
Ben Hunt PhD's picture

The world made two discoveries last week. Everyone is aware of the first discovery – that ISIS is not “a junior varsity team” but an able protagonist in what Pope Francis quite rightly calls “a piecemeal third World War”. Very few are aware of the second discovery – the existence of...