I discuss how once QE-2 ends, the Federal government is out of options—nobody outside the US has the stomach or cash to buy +$75 billion in Treasuries a month. So therefore, it is either more QE—or a drastic solution, like confiscating retirement accounts and forcibly converting those assets into Treasury bonds, like they did in Argentina.
Most of this week’s very long newsletter focused on the NPC meeting in Beijing, the proposals to boost consumption (which I think will greatly disappoint), and the release of data by the National Bureau of statistics.
Deepcaster provides a Forecast Overview for Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar, U.S. T-Notes and T-Bonds, Interest Rates, and one Key Commodity for the next 6 Months.
Back in 2009 it seemed obvious that the next shoe to fall — or bomb to go off — was commercial real estate. The thinking went something like this: homes go into foreclosure fast, when the mortgage holder loses a job, or the monthly payment adjusts to some ungodly number that dwarfs the hapless homeowner’s disposable income, or they simply realize that they can rent a similar house for half the money.
Way back in August 2006, near the top of the housing bubble, I suggested a two-part scenario for the housing bust: it would take eight more years to play out, and the declines would occur in sharp downlegs following a phase-shift model.
Everyone knew that Portugal would have to roll over and accept a bailout at some point. It was inevitable that this has happened. The lines crossed some time ago. Portugal has too much short-term debt.
Keynesian economists are propagandizing the media with a unified message; in one breath lightly touching on the human tragedy in Japan, while in the next anticipating with delight the economic recovery it will (supposedly) create
What we are seeing in Wisconsin and in other state budgets across the nation is not really about the states so much as it is a federal unraveling, as the government toys with allowing artificial employment levels to decline.
Equities and precious metals are on the edge of another rally and it could start as early as tomorrow. On March 13th I posted some of my analysis online showing how the market was trading at a key pivot point and that a sharp price movement was about to unfold. I also provided everyone with the direction in favor which played out perfectly catching a 4.5% in three days.
I don’t know how likely it is, but shouldn’t the gold price naysayers and gold bubble theorists all stand up on their chairs and jump off right about now?
