Late last week, there was a spike in random speculation that the German government was preparing to exit the eurozone—and that in fact, the Germans had gone so far as to print new Deutsche mark bills and mint new Deutsche mark coins.
Several alternative news sites, including Zero Hedge and others, gave serious credence to this rumor—enough credence that the euro took a hit against the dollar and gold.
But at the end of the day, it was just random speculation from one Dr. Philippa Malmgren, who was interviewed by a Swedish newspaper as saying “My impression is that the German Government sent us a number of signals that, from their perspective there is no other solution [than for them to leave the euro].”
This random speculation—coupled with last year’s random speculation from Hartgeld.com, a German fringe site that claimed with absolute certainty that on May 12, 2010, the Germans would for sure go back to the Deutsche mark, having already printed and minted the new bills and coins—gave the Malmgren nonsense some legs.
The fact of the rumor is no big deal—there are always rumors.
The fact that the financial community took such nonsense so seriously points to the big deal in this situation—the underlying worry that a lot of market participants are fearing: What if the Germans all of a sudden cry, “Forget it!”, and let slip the bonds of the eurozone?
Can they leave the eurozone?
Sure they can—anything is possible. But is it likely that the Germans will leave the eurozone?
In a word, no—because they are a creditor nation.
According to Bundesbank figures, Germany’s current account surplus for 2010 was €141 billion, with net capital exports of about €131; 2011 figures seem on track to match those amounts. Suppose the Germans decided to exit the euro and go into the new Deutsche mark: What would happen to the euro?
Continue Reading, "Germany Will Never Leave the Eurozone - Because It Can’t"
