Earlier this month, I hit my 19-year work anniversary at Briefing.com. It was yet another reminder of how fast time flies when you're doing something you love. So much has happened in that time for me, both personally and professionally.
I started here as a 25-year old bachelor. Today, I am 44 years old, married, and have four children. I began my career here as an entry-level analyst writing the Stock Market Update page. Today, I am the Chief Market Analyst, responsible for covering the Page One, The Big Picture, Market View, and Fed Brief columns in addition to providing Story Stocks coverage, market insight for the In Play page, and the analysis of all economic releases.
Read CFOs Say China, US Political Turmoil Pose Greatest Risk to Economic Outlook
Rest assured, this little trip down memory lane is not without direction nor is it intended to be self-aggrandizing. On the contrary, it's a setup for this week's column, which is going to look at the condition of the US economy by intersecting the personal with the professional to make that situation easier to understand.
Meaning Please
I think we can all agree that there has been a lot of momentous change in the world over the last 19 years. Part of that change has included a US economy that has said goodbye to its six-pack abs and hello to its "dad bod."
Some readers may be familiar with the term "dad bod," but many others may not. It is a term that took off last year courtesy of Clemson University sophomore Mackenzie Pearson, who penned an essay, which ultimately went viral, explaining the essence of that term of endearment.
Briefly, Pearson writes that "A dad bod is a guy who is not incredibly chiseled, but at the same time, is not unhealthy. He's not overweight. He's probably that guy who played football in high school and came to college and didn't play football. Maybe he had a few too many slices of pizza or a few to (sic) many ramens, and just ended up with a little bit of squish on top of his muscle."
Google the term "images of dad bod" and you'll quickly see the personification of a dad bod. If you don't want to do that, picture a beer belly and some love handles at the waist line.
The dad bod label tends to get attached more readily to married men who have children, implying that they have closed the door on the gym post-kids and have opened the door on the refrigerator.
It's a catch-all term, which, like most catch-all terms, isn't entirely fair to all involved. A case in point is yours truly, who doesn't sport love handles so much as he sports like handles.
So, let's now take a look at some pictures that expose the transformation of the US economy from stud muffin (1982-2007) to muffin (2008-2016). They're not terribly bad looking, yet they make it clear the economy has gotten somewhat soft and that it just isn't what it used to be.
What It All Means
I latched on to this "dad bod" idea following the release of the latest Industrial Production report. The lightbulb went on for me (and not the one in the refrigerator) when I saw that industrial production was down 1.0% year-over-year.
That report followed on the heels of the revised productivity report, which showed nonfarm business labor productivity decreased at a 2.2% annual rate in the fourth quarter. That report followed in the wake of the second estimate for fourth-quarter GDP, which showed real GDP increased at an annual rate of just 1.0% versus the advance estimate of 0.7%.
That was a good bit of influential data with a noticeably soft underbelly. It didn't use to be that way. There was a time when those respective growth rates were in much better shape.
Read also Leading Indicators Show US, Global Economy at a Tipping Point
Most readers are probably aware by now that the US economy hasn't escaped from the Great Recession in the manner many economists and policymakers expected. Why that remains an academic work in progress, yet there is a palpable sense of frustration that the US economy hasn't achieved escape velocity despite trillions of dollars of monetary and fiscal stimulus since late-2008 that was intended to help it do just that.
To illustrate that point, we looked at the 25-year period from 1982 to 2007, uncovering average growth rates for that period and pitting them against average growth rates for 2008 to present for many key metrics.
The brief summation is that the US economy looked better then than it does today. And even in those times when the economy fell off the treadmill between 1982 and 2007, it didn't take too long to get back on and regain its shape.
Today the US economy flirts now and then with getting in shape, yet it regretfully always seems to go the way of that oft-repeated, and soon abandoned, new year resolution to get in shape. That doesn't mean it is in terrible shape, only that it is just softer and squishier than its former self because it isn't working out like it used to and its metabolism (er, productivity) has slowed.
Yep, the US economy has a dad bod.
