Chris Puplava's picture

The S&P 500 had its first monthly close above 2100 in February, the Dow closed over 18,000 and the NASDAQ currently rests a mere 3% below its 2000 bubble peak of 5132.52. Why is the stock market heading higher when incoming economic data is surprising to the downside?

FS Staff's picture

The S&P 500 has been up double-digits for the past three years. Although we don't expect to see a recession or negative returns this year, right now we think stock prices have gotten ahead of fundamentals...

Doug Short's picture

Today the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for February. The latest headline PMI was 52.9 percent, a decline from the previous month's 53.5 percent and below...

BCA Research's picture

History shows that valuations don’t matter until they do. The challenge is gauging what will cause investors to balk at current multiples, which have vaulted to elevated levels.

Sober Look's picture

China's central bank followed up with a second rate cut this year. While many believe this is a step in the right direction, the move alone will do little to reduce high real rates and tight effective monetary policy.

Patrick O'Hare's picture

Isn't it great that gas prices have come down? That means consumers will have more money to SPEND, SPEND, SPEND. You got a raise? Great! Now you have more money to SPEND, SPEND, SPEND.

FS Staff's picture

Richard Dickson of Lowry Research says that they still aren't seeing any of the characteristic signs associated with major peaks and that it's way too early to start worrying about a Dow Theory sell signal with the divergence between the Dow Jones...

Tom McClellan's picture

To review briefly, this week’s chart shows a comparison between the 2-year Treasury Note yield and the target rate for Fed Funds, which is set by the FOMC. The NY Fed is then tasked with adding or withdrawing...

Oil Price's picture

Oil. The commodity. We know what it’s worth – at least we thought we did – but what does a barrel of the black stuff get you in real life? Before we get theoretical, let’s first consider how much oil you use.

Doug Short's picture

The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYXdata website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let's examine the numbers and study the relationship between...