Financial Sense Newshour
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Barry Ritholtz: Most Economic Crises Are Overblown- Driven by the Media and Washington
Long-term secular trend signals higher corporate productivity but less jobs in the future
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Jim welcomes back Barry Ritholtz, CEO and Director of Equity Research at Fusion IQ, an online quantitative research firm. Barry discusses how the many economic “crises” today are overblown and essentially driven by the media and Washington. Barry sees the vast majority of “news” today as simply gossip. As to stocks, Barry believes they are not as cheap as 3 years ago, but still reasonably priced. He much prefers the dividend theme to stock buy-backs by corporations. Barry also discussed a long term secular trend in demographic changes that will be a negative for employment longer term, as increasingly more productive companies need fewer workers to stay profitable.
Evelyn Garriss: Spring and Summer Weather: The Invasion of the Tropics
Don’t expect drought conditions and crop/livestock vulnerability to end west of the Mississippi
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Jim welcomes back Evelyn Browning Garriss, Editor of The Browning Newsletter. Evelyn discusses changes in weather patterns in the tropics that should add more rainfall in the springtime, but bring more heat waves and potential “flash droughts” in the summer. Evelyn expects drought conditions and vulnerability of crops and livestock to continue this summer on land west of the Mississippi River.
The Lifetime Income Series: Caught Off Guard – Californians Squeezed by Retroactive State Tax Increases and 2013 Federal Rates
Special Guest: Dr. Wade Pfau of The American College on the 4% Withdrawal Rule
This week Jim and Cathlyn discuss how many taxpayers, particularly in California, are getting nasty surprises heading into tax season with retroactive 2012 tax increases and higher estimated Federal taxes for 2013. They discuss tools to reduce taxable income, and the investment and taxation implications of dividend-paying stocks, retirement plans and trusts. This week’s guest is Dr. Wade Pfau of The American College. He will discuss the “4% withdrawal rule” used in traditional retirement planning assumptions, and assess its strengths and weaknesses.
Technician Louise Yamada: Short-Term Consolidation Upon Us; Markets Ready For a Pause
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend on Commodities and Jim Puplava on Fixed Income
Jim is pleased to welcome noted technician Louise Yamada CMT, Managing Director of Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors. Louise sees a short-term consolidation ahead, and thinks the markets are ready for a pause (click here for charts). She sees a 5-10% decline as not out of line. She admits monetary policy by the Fed is a big factor in today’s stock market. On gold, Louise believes the technical factors don’t look good at the present, with distribution taking place. Also in this segment, Ryan Puplava has this week’s Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend covers commodities, and Jim Puplava has this week’s Fixed Income Report, sitting in for Rob Bernard.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: Wash, Rinse and Repeat- That Was Then, This Is Now
Also, “Has The Glitter Faded? Why Gold Prices Can Still Go Higher”
In this week’s first Big Picture topic “Wash, Rinse and Repeat – that was then, this is now” Jim looks at a repeat of the Petro Business Cycle pattern for the fourth year in a row. The familiar economic scenario features a strong start to the year, then the LEI’s roll over and the economy starts to slow, which is followed by more Federal Reserve stimulus, which leads to a strong finish to the year. Wash, rinse and repeat. The next topic, “Has the glitter faded? Why gold prices can go higher” is in response to the weak precious metals market. Jim continues his thesis that you don’t need a Doomsday scenario to see rising gold prices in the future. This topic also leads into Jim’s in-depth conversation with John Kaiser on gold in the next segment of the program. Jim also answers some of your Q-calls in this segment.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: An In-Depth Conversation on Gold with John Kaiser
The Reasons Behind the Bear Market in Gold Equities and What Comes Next
Jim welcomes special guest and independent gold analyst John Kaiser of Kaiser Research Online and Kaiser Bottom-Fish Online. In a wide-ranging discussion on gold and gold equities (click here for charts), John and Jim look at the reasons behind the bear market in gold equities; the fundamentals of the mining business, the rise of the Robo-Traders, and the role (and complicity) of the regulators. They also discuss catalysts for why the gold market can recover and continue higher, and why it won’t take Armageddon. John and Jim also advise what to do as a gold stock investor, and how to not fall prey to the Robo-Traders. Also, Jim answers more of your Q-Calls in this segment.
Louise Yamada CMT on the Dow/Gold Ratio
Also, John Kaiser examines gold and silver cycles since 1970.
Louise Yamada CMT provides insights on the Dow/Gold ratio from 1979 to present as well as Japan Nikkei 225 monthly activity since 1989. John Kaiser provides the Financial Sense Newshour with global gdp and military spending and the boom and bust bubbles of gold and silver since 1970.
Professor Steve Hanke: Better Growth but Higher Inflation in the Second Half of 2013
How the value of the dollar influences inflation
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Jim welcomes Professor Steve Hanke, Professor of Applied Economics at The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. Professor Hanke is also a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C. Jim and Professor Hanke discuss his recent article “Hyperinflation? No. Inflation? Yes.” He sees better growth ahead in the second half, perhaps as high as 3%, but also growing inflation as well. Professor Hanke notes that the US has had periods of high inflation in its history, including the Civil War, but never hyperinflation. He does not believe we will see it in the US in the foreseeable future.
Ned Schmidt On The Four “Best of Class” Stocks In The Agriculture Sector
Wait for the Seasonally Weak Summer Period to Buy in the Ag Sector
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Jim welcomes back Ned Schmidt CFA, Publisher of The Value View Gold & The Agri-Food Value View Reports. Ned discusses the top performing commodities in 2013: oats, cotton, eggs and butter. He notes that the global population keeps growing and everyone needs to eat. Ned also discusses his four “Best of Class” stocks in the agriculture sector. He advises not to buy them now, but wait until the seasonally weak summer period, when prices will likely be lower. Ned also discusses how he got into studying and writing about the agriculture sector. It turns out it was a play on China.
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Jim welcomes back Axel Merk, founder and portfolio manager at Merk Investments LLC. This week Axel discusses some of the downside of currency wars, including a loss of competitiveness in domestic economies, growing social unrest, and in extreme cases, war. Axel also sees the Eurozone as less capable of debasing its currency than other countries, which will ultimately strengthen the Euro. He sees gold in a transition phase, but believes that the US, Japan and the UK will drive gold prices higher eventually.
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