Financial Sense

NYSE Margin Debt: A 1.6% Decline From Last Month's Record High
Doug Short's picture

The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYXdata website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let's examine the numbers and study the relationship between...

Current Oil Price Slump Far From Over
Oil Price's picture

The oil price collapse of 2014-2015 began one year ago this month (Figure 1). The world crossed a boundary in which prices are not only lower now but will probably remain lower for some time. It represents a phase...

Deadlines, Deals, and Defaults
Sheraz Mian's picture

Greece has defaulted on its loan to the IMF, but hopes of a last-minute deal remain alive. And it is these hopes and rumors of a potential deal that appear to be giving markets a lift today. It isn’t easy to fully decipher...

Events Continue to Conspire Against The Fed
Tim Duy PhD's picture

Federal Reserve policymakers just can't catch a break lately. Riding on the back of strong data in the second half of last year, they were positioning themselves to declare victory and begin the process of policy normalization...

Barry Bannister on Greece
David Kotok's picture

A sharp note this morning by Barry Bannister (STIFEL) is worth sharing. We thank Barry for giving us permission. Despite all this posturing over Greece and “Grexit” risk, I doubt Greece will be allowed to leave the eurozone.

Recession vs. Wealth Inequality
Matthew Kerkhoff's picture

The economy contracted 0.2% in the first quarter, based on the latest revision released last Wednesday. But as we know, a number of temporary factors including another harsh winter, the west coast port strike...

Earnings Preview - Second Quarter 2015
Patrick O'Hare's picture

With the second quarter coming to an end, that means another earnings reporting period is right around the corner. Clearly, the market isn't expecting the results of the coming reporting period to be as dour as...

Have the Saudis Miscalculated the Impact of Lower Crude Prices on US Production?
Sober Look's picture

In 2014 the Saudis could no longer accept the loss of crude oil market share as the North American production levels shot up sharply over a three-year period.

Australia’s Housing Bubble: Myth, or Ticking Time Bomb?
Global Risk Insights's picture

The potential ‘housing bubble’ in the real estate market in Australia is an economically and politically charged issue, both domestically and internationally. However, there is still no clear consensus on whether or...

Bull Market Pause or Top? Clues from the Credit Markets
Chris Puplava's picture

When the outlook appears cloudy, a weight-of-the-evidence approach is usually best. In that light, the first place to examine is the credit markets, which often give an early warning of coming trouble. So, let's take a look...