Market Focus: Economy
Recent Editorials on Economy
- May 24 Durable Goods Orders Rise More Than Forecast by Doug Short
- May 24 The Eurozone’s Economy Could Surprise to the Upside by Sober Look
- May 23 Chart of the Day: Existing Home Sales by Lance Roberts
- May 22 Breakout in Bond Yields Foreshadows Possible Economic Acceleration by Chris Puplava
- May 21 Atypical Global Recovery Underway by Dwaine van Vuuren
- May 21 The Dollar Is Going Up by Keith Weiner
- May 21 Executive Sweet? by Brian Pretti CFA
- May 21 Hot Money, Cold Credit by Steve Hanke
- May 21 Barry Bannister: Government Making Same Policy Mistakes of the 1930's by FS Staff
- May 20 The Fed in Focus This Week by Sheraz Mian
- May 20 All Japan, All the Time by John Mauldin
- May 20 Trade Policy and Economic Decline by JR Nyquist
- May 20 The Rotation Continues by Thomas J Smith CFA
- May 20 Financial Euphoria by Douglas Noland
- May 17 The Last of the 2008 Doomsday Scenarios Is Fading Away by Sy Harding
Recent Newshours on Economy
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Technician Richard Dickson: Major Trend Gauges Are All Positive
May 25
Jim welcomes back Richard Dickson, Chief Market Analyst at Lowry Research. Richard notes that the major trend gauges are all positive at present. He sees a similarity in the markets to 1995, when there were no real corrections before the next advance. He believes the “Great Rotation” from bonds to stocks has not yet begun, but the “Fat Lady is warming up to start singing”, as evidenced by recent weakness in utilities. Also in this segment, Ryan Puplava has this week’s Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend covers Commodities, and Rob Bernard has the Fixed Income Report.
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Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: A Correction, Rotation, and Then a Melt-Up
May 25
In his first Big Picture topic this week, “A Correction, Rotation, and then a Melt-Up” Jim looks at the market for the second half of 2013. Jim believes we will see a short and shallow correction, followed by a rotation into cyclical stocks as the Reflation Trade plays catch-up in the second half. The “Melt-Up” might occur late in the year if bonds start to sell off and cash floods into stocks from the bond market. Jim also answers your Q-Calls in this segment of the program.
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Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: What the Fed Said, and What It Really Means
May 25
Jim’s next Big Picture topic centers on Ben Bernanke’s testimony on Capitol Hill this week. His remarks seemed to cause some confusion in the financial markets. Bernanke said premature tightening would carry a substantial risk of ending the economic recovery, but didn’t really provide much detail on when or if the Fed would begin to withdraw stimulus. Jim reads the tea leaves and gives his analysis of the Fed’s exit strategy. In the next topic, “The Risk of Double Taxation” Jim discusses the latest Congressional hunt for more tax revenue, this time focusing on Apple and its hoard of overseas cash. Jim looks at the very high corporate tax rates in the US, and the valid reasons corporations are reluctant to repatriate overseas cash.
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Barry Bannister: The Biggest Risk to the Economy Is Government Policy, Not Fundamentals
May 23
Jim is pleased to welcome back Barry Bannister CFA, Managing Director at Stifel Nicolaus. Barry characterizes the first half of 2013 as recovery from a deflationary shock, with defensive stocks outperforming. He sees the second half of the year as a return of the “reflation trade”, with an emphasis on the energy, materials, industrials and technology sectors. Barry also discusses the many parallels between the depression-era policies of 1932-1937 and the current economic policies from 2009 -2013. He sees politicians repeating many of the same policy mistakes, and believes if the economy falters, it will be policy-driven, not from the economic fundamentals.
