Financial Sense

factor big risk no is talking about
Separating an Innocuous Correction From the Start of a Sinister Bear Market
Urban Carmel's picture

By Urban Carmel – It's true that equities fall before the start of most recessions. So why bother following the economy; why not just follow the price of equities? "Market corrections" occur every 20 months, but less than a third of these actually becomes...


Gold Holds $1300, Euro Price Hits 8-Month High as Italy Bond Spread Jumps, Turkey-US Tensions Worsen
Adrian Ash's picture

By Adrian Ash – Gold prices held above $1300 per ounce in London trade Friday, erasing half of last week's 2% drop even as the Dollar rose again on the FX market amid fresh tensions between Nato members Turkey and the US plus...


Mindless Robots Have Taken Over the Markets, Says Don Coxe
FS Staff's picture

By FS Staff – FS Insider recently interviewed Don Coxe at Coxe Advisors on the large number of storm fronts that are converging upon the financial markets, whether in the disruption to the fundamental pricing mechanism that dictates corporate valuations...


Short-Term Trend Shifts Bullish as US and China Enter ZOPA
Matthew Kerkhoff's picture

By Matthew Kerkhoff – Recent talks over this past weekend have helped make it clear that both sides are interested in reaching an agreement. China has already agreed to increase its imports of U.S. products, and on Sunday, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin...


Financial Sense Leading Economic Indicator Confirms Decelerating Growth Outlook
FS Staff's picture

By FS Staff – Our Financial Sense leading economic indicator (LEI) peaked in October 2017 and has experienced six months of consecutive declines. It is still in positive territory—meaning the risk of a recession over the next six months is quite low—but weakening...


A Budding Choice Between Risk and Risk Free
Patrick O'Hare's picture

By Patrick O'Hare – Why would stock investors be interested in owning short-term Treasury securities when this bull market has yet to be slain by the matador (that would be Fed Chair Powell by the way). If investors hold Treasury securities to maturity, they don't...


Demographics: The US Working Age Population Is in its Prime
Urban Carmel's picture

By Urban Carmel – Starting around the year 2000, many investors began obsessing over the aging demographic profile in the United States. The concern seemed reasonable. The working age population in Japan had peaked in 1995, 5 years after the Nikkei...


Throw Out Those Condoms in China
Peter Boockvar's picture

By Peter Boockvar – China is discussing the end of all restrictions on having kids "according to people familiar with the matter" according to BN. They reported that "The State Council, China's cabinet, has commissioned research on the repercussions...


Four Forces Fueling a New American Century
FS Staff's picture

By FS Staff – This time on Financial Sense, we look back on a 2014 interview with Joel Kurtzman to discuss his book, Unleashing the Second American Century: Four Forces for Economic Dominance. As we were coming out of the Great Recession, Kurtzman...


What Happened to the Presidential Cycle?
Tom McClellan's picture

By Tom McClellan – If this were a “normal” 2nd year of a presidential term, we would now be in a corrective period due to last until just before the mid-term elections. But as many in the press have noted, we do not have...


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