Financial Sense

You Can Say the "R" Word, But the Recession Can Wait
Patrick O'Hare's picture

By Patrick O'Hare – The spread between the 10-yr Treasury note and the 2-yr Treasury note dropped below 50 basis points on April 9 and it has remained below 50 basis points since then. It is currently at 49 basis points, up from...

Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Slight Increase in March
Jill Mislinski's picture

By Jill Mislinski – The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for March increased to 109.0 from 108.7 in February. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) came in at 103.4, up from the previous month.

Will Your Top Marginal Tax Rate Change in 2018-2019? Most Definitely
Josh Nunn's picture

By Josh Nunn – Marginal tax rates are a large part of an individual’s tax situation because, by definition, they determine the percentage an individual pays for every additional dollar of taxable income. We recently put together two charts showing the amount...

Trump Loves Gold, and Gold Bugs Are Loving Trump
FS Staff's picture

By FS Staff – Historically, the cost of a trade war is inflation, which coupled with the risk of a global slowdown this year, boosts the attractiveness of gold as a hedge, Ing stated. “The president is not just saber rattling anymore,” Ing said. “It's tit-for-tat...

What Happens When the Fed Closes the Term Spread?
Matthew Kerkhoff's picture

By Matthew Kerkhoff – If you were to compile a list of the most effective recession predictors, the term spread, or difference between short and long-term interest rates, would likely be at the top of that list. This is because the term...

Late-Cycle Commodity Surge Under Way, Says Frank Barbera
FS Staff's picture

By FS Staff – According to the Game Plan for Late-Cycle Investing, as the economy moves towards its latter stages, commodities tend to outperform equities and other asset classes. Frank Barbera—market technician, portfolio manager, and editor of the Gold Stock...

Store Closures Set to Accelerate this Year, Warns Bloomberg's Matt Townsend
FS Staff's picture

FS Staff – Last year we saw more than 7,000 stores close their doors, more than twice the amount of stores that opened in the same time period. There are a number of trends at work but the root cause of America's “retail apocalypse” mainly comes down...

The Fed Is Behind
Tom McClellan's picture

By Tom McClellan – Make me Emperor for a day, and I would compel the FOMC to outsource interest rate policy to the bond market. Why should we pay 12 experts, most with expensive Ivy League Ph.D. degrees, to do...

Job Openings & Labor Turnover: Clues to the Business Cycle
Jill Mislinski's picture

By Jill Mislinksi – The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary), with data through February, is now available. The first chart below shows four of the headline components of the overall series, which...

Podcast: The Perfect Energy Storm
FS Staff's picture

By FS Staff – Markets are currently assuming that oil prices are capped right now and that with increased shale production in the US, we’re unlikely to see higher prices anytime soon. This time on the Financial Sense Big Picture, Jim Puplava...