Financial Sense

What Happens When the Fed Closes the Term Spread?
Matthew Kerkhoff's picture

By Matthew Kerkhoff – If you were to compile a list of the most effective recession predictors, the term spread, or difference between short and long-term interest rates, would likely be at the top of that list. This is because the term...


Late-Cycle Commodity Surge Under Way, Says Frank Barbera
FS Staff's picture

By FS Staff – According to the Game Plan for Late-Cycle Investing, as the economy moves towards its latter stages, commodities tend to outperform equities and other asset classes. Frank Barbera—market technician, portfolio manager, and editor of the Gold Stock...


Store Closures Set to Accelerate this Year, Warns Bloomberg's Matt Townsend
FS Staff's picture

FS Staff – Last year we saw more than 7,000 stores close their doors, more than twice the amount of stores that opened in the same time period. There are a number of trends at work but the root cause of America's “retail apocalypse” mainly comes down...


The Fed Is Behind
Tom McClellan's picture

By Tom McClellan – Make me Emperor for a day, and I would compel the FOMC to outsource interest rate policy to the bond market. Why should we pay 12 experts, most with expensive Ivy League Ph.D. degrees, to do...


Job Openings & Labor Turnover: Clues to the Business Cycle
Jill Mislinski's picture

By Jill Mislinksi – The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary), with data through February, is now available. The first chart below shows four of the headline components of the overall series, which...


Podcast: The Perfect Energy Storm
FS Staff's picture

By FS Staff – Markets are currently assuming that oil prices are capped right now and that with increased shale production in the US, we’re unlikely to see higher prices anytime soon. This time on the Financial Sense Big Picture, Jim Puplava...


Fed Inflation Gauge Continues to Pick Up Steam
Peter Boockvar's picture

By Peter Boockvar – It wasn't just the BLS inflation report that came out yesterday. The NY Fed's Underlying Inflation Gauge for March in its "full data set" increased to 3.14% from 3.07% in February. It's the 10th straight month of an increase in the y/o/y gains...


How to Legally Lower Your Tax Bill
FS Staff's picture

By FS Staff – The tax laws of 2018 have changed, and we’ve seen many of the itemized deductions removed along with personal exemptions. But just because the system is changing doesn’t mean you won’t be able to find tax advantages. “If you're in the Middle Class...


Pettis: China Has Most to Lose in Trade War
FS Staff's picture

By FS Staff – Global markets rallied strongly after Chinese President Xi Jinping appears to have taken the first step in backing away from a trade war with the U.S., promising to cut tariffs on auto imports and other products. In a widely anticipated speech...


Yamada: Dow Forming Bearish Technical Pattern
FS Staff's picture

By FS Staff – Since the January high, we see equities repeatedly approaching their 200-day moving average, and each subsequent rally appears to be weaker and reach lower highs. “The indication is that … people are selling into that strength,” Yamada said...


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