Financial Sense Blog

Why Green Energy Will Continue to Power the Commodity Boom

Sep 29 – The expected number of wind turbines needed to reach a net-zero carbon emissions goal by 2050 will require a herculean mining effort to extract 3,200 million tons of steel, 310 million tons of aluminum, and 40 million tons copper...

The Next Energy Crisis

Sep 13 - In addition to the regulations and new taxes on energy, there is a major disincentive to invest in producing more oil and natural gas. Amin Nasser, the head of Aramco, the world’s largest oil company, said the world is facing a major...

Home Sales Are Crashing Faster Than the Bursting of the 2005 Housing Bubble

Aug 18 – The recent 6-month slide in existing home sales is so steep that even the sharpest deceleration during the housing bubble could not match the recent pace in declining home sales in that it took 9 months to fall in 2007 to match...

When a Pause Is Not a Pause & Why 2.5% Is the Most Important Threshold to Watch

Aug 1 – A true pause by the Fed means an end to rate hikes AND an end to shrinking its balance sheet. The market is cheering that we may be getting closer to the former but, I believe, has yet to come to grips with the latter...

One Chart That Explains the Recent Oil Price Collapse

Jul 14 – As shown by the chart below, the Biden administration is selling off US Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) at the fastest pace on record. As of today, we are now at the lowest levels since 1985. Here is where things get concerning...

Riders on the Storm: Inflation Nation

Jun 16 – The great majority of professional economists and the mainstream media define inflation as merely rising prices. However, this definition says absolutely nothing about any specific cause of rising prices. It implies that inflation can be caused by anything...

Peak Fed Rate Expectations? Using the 2-Year UST Yield to Time the Fed Pivot

May 25 – Since the 1981-1982 recession, every time the 2yr UST yield dipped below the fed funds rate by 50 bps or more, the Fed cut interest rates within 1 year, no exceptions. The typical lead time was just under 2 months...

Are We There Yet? (AKA: Is the Bottom In?)

May 18 – With financial markets not quite near seizure levels, we do not appear to be close to a Fed pivot yet. Further, the other concern given the decline in economic growth (negative print in GDP for Q1 2022) is that analysts continue to not price in...

Riders on the Storm

May 2 – In my four decades in the business, I have only witnessed one soft landing once a fed rate raising cycle began, which was 1994. They have a very poor track record of predicting inflation and engineering a soft landing in the economy...

Why the World's Energy Shock Will Continue

Apr 13 – Much of our oil comes from just 25 oil fields discovered over 75 years ago. The worlds’ 507 giant oil fields make up about 1% of all oil fields, but they produce 60% of the current oil supply. The majority of these fields are over 50 years old...