Sep 5, 2024 – There's typically a two-year lag between interest rate changes and their effect on the broader economy, suggesting that the full impact of recent rate hikes is yet to be felt. As illustrated by the chart, the unemployment rate is following this...
Aug 28, 2024 – The significance of this achievement cannot be overstated. As Dr. Thompson points out, "The questions are at a level beyond what I could do, what any of my prodigies could do. There are only a handful of people in the world...
Aug 23, 2024 – Stocks consolidated this week after enjoying their best performance of the year last week. This week, the key events were earnings reports from retailers, the FOMC minutes for the July meeting, weekly initial jobless claims...
Aug 15, 2024 – At the heart of Chandler's argument is the concept of the "policy mix" – the combination of monetary and fiscal policies that can significantly influence a currency's strength. Historically, the most favorable policy mix...
Aug 13, 2024 – As the United States approaches its next presidential election, the stark contrast between potential candidates and their policies adds a layer of uncertainty to an already complex economic picture. The outcome of this election...
Aug 8, 2024 – The recession signal from the Sahm Rule is why the S&P 500 lost 100 points or -1.8% on August 2 after the release of the jobs report. Since 1953, the recession signal has consistently arrived after a recession has taken hold...
Aug 5, 2024 – In the 1954 film “The High and the Mighty,” a flight from Honolulu to San Francisco experiences a failure of one of its four engines and a fuel loss. This emergency arises just beyond the point of no return, where turning back is no longer an option...
Jul 30, 2024 – A number of mega cap stocks report earnings this week so the likelihood of volatility is high. The chart of the Semiconductor Index provided an important clue given that institutions remain overweight this index and any change to...
Jul 24, 2024 – The magnitude of the move into the Russell 2000 was historic. When data is 2 standard deviations from the mean it encompasses 95.0% of all outcomes. According to Bespoke, the Russell 2000 closed 4.4 standard deviations above...
Jul 23, 2024 – The stock market typically rallies after the last Fed rate hike through the onset of a recession. However, once a recession begins, the stock market has seen declines as little as 9% (1980 recession) to as great as 54% (2007-2009)...
