Daniel Amerman's Blog

Financial Consultant, CFA
dan [at] danielamerman [dot] com ()

Daniel R. Amerman is a Chartered Financial Analyst and the author of a number of books on finance and economics.

Articles by Mr. Amerman or referencing his work have appeared in numerous publications and websites, including Reuters, MarketWatch, U.S. News & World Report, MSN Money, Seeking Alpha, Business Insider, ValueWatch, Nasdaq.com, Morningstar.com, TalkMarkets and Financial Sense. Two of his books on securities analysis were published by McGraw-Hill (and subsidiary): Mortgage Securities, and Collateralized Mortgage Obligations: Unlock The Secrets Of Mortgage Derivatives.

Mr. Amerman is a finance MBA with over 30 years of professional financial experience. As an investment banker he did groundbreaking work in the such areas as CMO/REMIC originations as part of portfolio restructurings for financial institutions, and the creation of synthetic securities for institutional clients. As an independent quantitative analyst, he has provided structural, analytical and mathematical verification services for investment banks, trust departments, and rating agencies.

The Coming Return of Zero Percent Interest Rates

Jan 28 – Over the last forty years and five recessions, the Federal Reserve has forced short-term interest rates down by an average of about 7.25% per recession. This response to recession of rapidly decreasing interest rates has been 100% reliable in the modern era...

The Cycle That Saves Home Buyers $3,000 Per Year Just Ran Out of Fuel

Nov 5 – Home buyers in every city and state have benefited from a powerful financial cycle for almost five years. Most people are not aware of this cycle, but it has lowered the average monthly mortgage payment for home buyers on a national basis...

Loss of Yield Curve "Shock Absorber" Could Mean a Rough Ride Ahead for Markets & Housing

By Daniel Amerman – Two important financial cycles are currently converging for the first time in more than ten years, and how they work in combination can provide key information about the future value of our retirement portfolios, the future prices of our homes...

A Remarkably Accurate Warning Indicator for Economic & Market Peril

By Daniel Amerman – Would you have appreciated a single number that could have given you a clear and unmistakable warning before the tech stock bubble collapsed? How about an unequivocal mathematical warning in...

Increasing the National Debt By $6 Trillion in One Committee Meeting

By Dan Amerman – Could a committee of unelected officials increase your household's share of the national debt by $60,000 in a single meeting? In normal times - they could not. However, these are not normal times and any...

The ABCs of Popping a Third Asset Bubble

By Dan Amerman – Movies can have quite predictable plot lines that we know in advance - but we love them anyway. It could be a romance, where the girl is going to end up with the right guy through a series of improbable events...

The Wealth Machine That Rising Interest Rates Create and the Conflict with the National Debt (Part 2)

By Dan Amerman – Compound interest is an extraordinarily powerful financial tool, and reinvesting the cash flows received from investments has historically been the single most reliable way of building wealth over the long term.

The Potential $54 Trillion Cost of the Fed's Planned Interest Rate Increases

By Daniel Amerman – The United States national debt is currently about $20 trillion, and the federal government is paying some of the lowest interest rates in history on that debt. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates five times now...

Predicting Dow One Million – Was Warren Buffett Being Bold or Overly Cautious?

By Daniel Amerman – In a recent speech, Warren Buffett came down boldly on the side of optimism when it comes to both the economy and financial markets. What he said was "being short America has been a loser's game...

The Profoundly Personal Impact of the National Debt on Our Retirements

By Daniel Amerman – In this analysis, we will take a look at something deeply personal – which is how the $20 trillion United States national debt may change the day-to-day quality of life for savers and retirees in the decades ahead.

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