Doug Short's Blog

VP of Research
dshort [at] advisorperspectives [dot] com ()

My original dshort.com website was launched in February 2005 using a domain name based on my real name, Doug Short. I'm a formerly retired first wave boomer with a Ph.D. in English from Duke. Now my website has been acquired by Advisor Perspectives, where I have been appointed the Vice President of Research.

March Consumer Confidence Highest Since 2000

The latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through March 16. The headline number of 125.6 was a sharp increase from the final reading of 116.1 for February, an upward revision...

ECRI Weekly Leading Index: "Disentangling Cyclical from Structural"

Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 145.0, up 0.4 from the previous week. It is currently at an all-time high. Year-over-year the four-week...

The Big Four Economic Indicators: A December Bounce

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as...

The Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Personal Income in November

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.

Is the US Workforce Nearing Full Recovery? Don't Trust the Unemployment Rate for the Answer!

We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include last week's Employment Report for November. The unemployment rate beat expectations by dropping from 4.9% to 4.6%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs...

A New Look - NYSE Margin Debt and the Market

The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYX data website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let's examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt...

The Big Four Economic Indicators: October Industrial Production Disappoints ... Again

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.

The Big Four Economic Indicators: October Nonfarm Employment

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.

Margin Debt Shoots Up, Back Near All-Time Highs

The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYX data website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let's examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt...

Q3 GDP Advance Estimate: A Surprisingly Strong 2.9%

The Advance Estimate for Q3 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 2.9%, a surprisingly large increase over the 1.4% Third Estimate of Q2. The latest number exceeded mainstream estimates. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow™ forecast...

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