Tom McClellan's Blog

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Tom McClellan has done extensive analytical spreadsheet development for the stock and commodities markets, including the synthesizing of the four-year Presidential Cycle Pattern. He has fine tuned the rules for interrelationships between financial markets to provide leading indications for important market and economic data.

Tom is a graduate of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point where he studied aerospace engineering, and he served as an Army helicopter pilot for 11 years. He began his own study of market technical analysis while still in the Army, and discovered ways to expand the use of his parents' indicators to forecast future market turning points. Tom views the movements of prices in the financial market through the eyes of an engineer, which allows him to focus on what the data really say rather than interpreting events according to the same "conventional wisdom" used by other analysts. In 1993, he left the Army to join his father Sherman in pursuing a new career doing this type of analysis. Tom and Sherman spent the next 2 years refining their analysis techniques and laying groundwork.

In April 1995 they launched their newsletter, The McClellan Market Report, an 8 page report covering the stock, bond, and gold markets, which is published twice a month. They utilize the unique indicators they have developed to present their view of the market's structure as well as their forecasts for future trend direction and the timing of turning points. A Daily Edition was added in February 1998 to give subscribers daily updates on their indicators and also provide market position indications for stocks, bonds and gold. Their subscribers range from individual investors to professional fund managers. Tom serves as editor of both publications, and runs the newsletter business from its location in Lakewood, WA.

Copper Leads the Way Lower for Bond Yields

Just a week ago, China was facing a banking system crisis that necessitated an injection of 375 billion yuan ($53 billion) into the money market, and that was after the prior week’s injection of 250 billion yuan ($36 billion). But now, after Christmas has passed...

SPY Assets Zooming Higher

During the post-election stock market rally, there has been a huge push into ETFs, and especially into SPY. It is the largest of the ETFs tied to the SP500 Index. It is normal to see fluctuations over time, with total shares outstanding...

Bonds and Gold in Unusual Correlation

Gold prices have shown an unusually strong correlation to bond prices this year. This is not normal, and the two are not usually marching in lockstep like this. The strong correlation began around May 2016. It may just be a coincidence that...

Copper Spike

Investors worldwide have suddenly caught a whiff of inflation, and have overreacted in response. That overreaction can be seen quite well in the big spike higher in copper prices, a rally which is now starting to be dismantled.

The Market, Under a New President

Investors get fearful ahead of a big election because the outcome is unknown. Unknown risks are what investors fear most. Now that the result is decided, we have known risks to deal with. Investors were also fearful ahead of the 2012 election...

Stock Market Forecasting a Trump Win

Since the 2000 election, I have been tracking how the presidential election poll numbers follow in the footsteps of the stock market, with the key insight that we can gauge how the popular vote is likely to turn out based on how the stock...

VIX Spread Signaling Excessive Complacence on Market Risk

When there is a big disagreement between the value of the spot VIX Index and the prices of its futures contracts, that carries important information about trader sentiment. As of the close on Sep. 28, 2016, the spot VIX was well below...

Bond Market Knows What Fed Should Do

We have an unblemished 21-year track record of predicting what the Fed should do, with 100% accuracy. What the FOMC actually does is often different from what it should do. As of the Sep. 21 FOMC meeting announcement...

McClellan: A Significant Trend Change Is Starting

The regular McClellan Oscillator is based on Advance-Decline (A-D) data for the NYSE. But the same calculation can be done on other sets of A-D data. This week’s chart looks at an interesting example of that, with a big...

Echo Boomers Will Fire Up Housing Market

Housing-related stocks are seeing an earlier than called for a push to a higher high. But if lumber prices are right, there are lots more gains to come. By that, I am referring to the way that lumber prices tend to give a 1-year leading indication for...

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