James Gruber's Blog


James has covered Asia as a leading Fund Manager, stockbroking analyst and journalist. Most recently, he spent two years as a Portfolio Manager for Asian Equities at AMP Capital, which manages Asian and China A-share funds totalling US$1bn. The performance of the China A-share fund was ranked no. 1 globally over one and two years during this time there.

For five years prior to this, James was a Research Analyst at Asian brokerage, CLSA, where he covered multiple sectors in Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia, Malaysia and Indonesia. He was the no. 1 Asiamoney ranked analyst for the materials sector in Indonesia in 2007. He was also ranked by Asiamoney as the 13th best overall analyst in Australia in 2009.

And in a former life, James was a television and radio news journalist at the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.

He founded Asia Confidential in July 2012.

Is Inflation Next?

Inflation is dead. At least that’s the view of the vast majority of economists, investors, policymakers and financial commentators. The view has been given further currency in recent months via various speeches from IMF director, Christine Lagarde.

Time to Buy China?

Late last year, Asia Confidential made a seemingly outrageous call: that junior gold miners would likely prove the great contrarian trade of 2014. At the time, these stocks were the most hated assets on the planet.

Emerging Market Banking Crises Are Next

Financial headlines have rightly been dominated by the largest 7-day sell-off of the Chinese yuan on record. Everyone’s speculating whether it’s been a deliberate move by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) or not.

Good News About Our Aging Population

A week doesn’t go by without hearing about the problems which will be created by the world’s rapidly aging population. Much of the focus is on how fewer people will mean lower future economic growth.

5 Ways to Profit From a China Downturn in 2014

Is China’s economy headed for a crash in 2014? It’s an extreme question that would be laughed at by many. After all, most believe that China is the world’s new powerhouse off the back of near 10% annual growth over the past decade.

Why Japan May Matter More Than Tapering

The traditionally quiet period for markets in December is turning out to be not-so-quiet, thanks to a key meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve starting December 17. The meeting will decide on whether a reduction in quantitative easing (QE) is necessary...

Deflation Is Crushing QE Right Now

Investors are focused on the possible tapering of U.S. stimulus and starting to take some money off the table after a strong equities rally year-to-date. Less attention is being paid to the biggest source of risk at present: deflation in the developed world.

China’s Bold Reforms Are Bad for Markets

China has unveiled its most sweeping reform agenda in more than 30 years, after a meeting of key Communist Party leaders in Beijing last week.

How to Play the Next Tech Disruption Wave

Everyone knows how the likes of retail and newspapers have been transformed by the internet. Well, there's much more to come as it's clear that supermarkets, healthcare and education are next in line for technological upheaval.

Unlike America, China Is Embracing Bold Reform

The contrast of the past week has been telling. In the U.S., you’ve had the yawn-fest otherwise known as the debt ceiling debate. All too predictably, the Republicans caved because their politicians will be up for re-election soon enough whereas Obama won’t be (he can only serve two terms).

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