Kurt Kallaus's Blog

Author

Kurt Kallaus is the author of Exec Spec and the KDelta trading model for stocks and all commodity futures. In the 1980’s, with a business degree and having worked in manufacturing, Kurt Kallaus engaged with a private Investment Partnership specializing in commodities and stock indexes.

He was certified a Commodity Trading Adviser (CTA) in 1985 to provide advice and services related to trading in futures contracts, commodity options and swaps.

Kurt Kallaus launched the Exec Spec advisory newsletter with the onset of the great 1982 Bull Market. Along with a broad economic and long term perspective on the economy and major investment markets, Exec Spec’s unique breakout pattern trading model KDelta was created.

China Says Deal, Tariff Man Says No Deal

Nov 11 – Has there ever been a bull market in stocks more connected to the words of one person? Presidential palaver and Trumpian tweets frequently rule day-to-day market action. In recent months the words coming from the Oval Office have repeatedly pushed...

Will Concern Consume the Consumer?

Oct 7 – Should U.S. consumers feel consumed by the growing avalanche of negative news? There is an unending tariff war between the world’s two biggest economies, risk of a hard Brexit impairing the U.K., a U.S. manufacturing...

Happy Consumers vs. Worried Producers

Jul 31– It’s great news that the U.S. economy (GDP) grew a better than expected 2.1% in the second quarter. It’s a far cry from the three to five percent Trump expects and the fluke 3.1% in the first quarter, but it’s also a long way from the recession expectations...

The Empire Falls: Economy Stumbles

Jul 16 – Since 2001 the New York Federal Reserve has compiled a manufacturing survey of the NY Empire State. It moves in step with most other Fed district surveys and provides a good measure of the industrial sector. After rising from a near recessionary collapse...

Bullard Wants a Rate Cut Now

Jun 26 – Prominent St. Louis Fed Chair James Bullard doesn’t like gaming investor expectations. The Federal Reserve has conveyed to the markets that they will not cut rates in June but hinted the Fed will oblige in late July. Bullard feels that if you see weakness...

No China Pain, No Trade Gain

May 30 – When US steel tariffs kicked in a year ago, the yuan depreciated sharply, which reduced the effectiveness of tariffs with cheaper Chinese export prices. The yuan had been rallying in 2019 as a trade agreement seemed imminent, but their currency plunged...

Trump Moves Closer to Defanging Iran

May 16 – Over 2,000 years ago Iran, known then as Persia, was the world’s first super power. Since becoming an anti-western theocratic Islamic Republic in 1979, Iran has been in the crosshairs of conservative...

New Trump Tariff Threat Tanks Stock Market

May 6 – Virtually every week this year confidence of a major trade agreement between the US and China has grown. Just a few days ago Trump surrogates spread rumors that a deal would be announced in a week. Suddenly, a lack of progress on trade deal enforcement terms...

Economic Green Shoots Anticipate Trade Deal Bloom

Apr 22 – In 2018, the U.S. economy expanded beyond its sustainable production capacity, juiced by massive tax cuts and global preordering ahead of Trump’s tariff hikes. As winter approached...

Stocks Anticipate China Trade Deal and Stronger GDP

Apr 3 – The stock market discounts future expectations. The roaring rally of the past 14 weeks cast aside recession ruminations and increasingly anticipates an economic rebound coincident with an important trade agreement...

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