The Guardian recently reported that “The crisis in Crimea could lead the world into a second cold war.” Not so, says JKC de Courcy of Courcy’s Intelligence Service, a leading intel service operating since 1934.
In his recent interview with Jim Puplava on the Financial Sense Newshour, de Courcy explained:
I don’t for a single moment believe that Russia is on the verge of starting a new Cold War for the very simple reason that it just doesn’t quite have the capability to do so. Its GDP is $2.5 trillion [whereas] the combined GDP of U.S. and Europe is $30 trillion. The disparities on military capabilities are also absolutely huge. It is true that Russia has been revamping its military recently, but it’s very interesting that what it’s been doing is re-tooling its forces for exactly the sort of engagement that’s happening in Crimea or that happened in Georgia…in other words, border wars or border intrusions, etc., but nothing like the Cold War era when tanks were poised to come across the north German plain.
Instead, de Courcy believes that Europe is overstating the danger imposed by Russia and that the greater threat lies in how other foreign actors perceive the West's willingness to respond in other more important areas of the globe:
What’s happening in Crimea is different. It’s an entirely different matter than what happened in the Cold War. I think that the Eastern European states are overstating the danger…but I do believe—and this is where the complexity of the issue comes in—is that weakness over the Crimea by the West could be misread in China as being another general symptom of western weakness…and that China could take this as a helpful precedent for some future action in the East or South China Seas where as you well know it has been very assertive about sovereignty claims against islands that are currently under the control of the Philippines and Japan and other neighbors.
Does this mean NATO should act more aggressively towards Russia? No. De Courcy cautions that there really is no easy solution to the geopolitical problems currently presented. When asked what western leaders should be doing then, he said:
You’ve got to be sending messages to the people who really count, which is Iran and China. But whatever we do on Crimea it should not be taken as a sign that we’re going to be weak in their cases. That is the absolutely essential message to get across.
According to the Chief Executive of Courcy’s Intelligence, China and Iran still represent more important threats. Russia, de Courcy explains, “really only has one major national goal and that is to survive as a separate independent European civilization. It doesn’t want to be absorbed completely by the West and it doesn’t want to become a Chinese satellite. And we can accommodate that…provided that Russia abides by certain rules. And that is what the statesmen have got to work out.”
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