In the first Big Picture topic this week, Jim and John discuss this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, and why it decided to scale back on its predictions for normalizing rate policy. It seems the data were not cooperating, and Jim discusses what the Fed must be seeing that caused it to stand-down. They also discuss if it’s even possible for the Fed ever fully to normalize interest rates again. In the next related topic, “What Does The Fed Know That We Don’t Know?”,
Jim and John delve into the economic data and dive into the weeds, searching for clues. Are there signs the economy has peaked, and we are now heading slowly toward a recession or are those signs telling us the Fed can engineer a soft landing and avoid a recession? The last topic this week is “Why We Have Slow Economic Growth”. There have been some explanations why the economy has never hit the annual growth targets of 3-4% over the last eight years. Jim offers another reason that lines up with historical evidence and is even more alarming than the other growth impediments.