Chris Ciovacco's Contributions

Healthy and sustainable bull markets tend to lift all equity boats around the globe. As shown in the chart of the China ETF below (FXI), Chinese stocks struggled for the first six months of 2013. Last week’s major announcement from Chinese leaders helped FXI push to a new five month high.

The longer you are involved with the financial markets, the more you respect the market’s obsession with the Fed. The quantitative easing process (QE) pumps money into the global financial system.

We were very reluctant to “get on Twitter” a few years back, but have found it to be a great source of anecdotal information allowing us to monitor investor sentiment. Since the October 9 intraday low in stocks, the trend in Twitter-land has been skeptical, rather than bullishly euphoric.

The three charts that follow show the S&P 500 in 2008, 2011, and 2013. The colored lines are moving averages that help us filter out day to day volatility and focus on trends. Notice how the moving averages are moving sideways before the big plunge in 2008.

Markets must climb a wall of worry. The long-time expression on the Street is backed by common sense. If investors are worried, then it stands to reason that they may have kept some money on the sidelines for the pullback they “know” is coming soon.

Wednesday’s Fed statement was interpreted by the markets as being more hawkish than expected (hawks want higher rates/low inflation).

Studies show that we all approach problems with an educational bias. For example, engineers develop solutions with math, and CFOs approach problems from a financial perspective.

Those of you who have experience with old-school charcoal grills know lighter fluid is used to prime the proverbial pump until the coals can take over. Quantitative easing (QE) is the Fed’s lighter fluid for the economy.

If we want to get a read on the longer-term aggregate battle between confidence in the economy/Fed/stocks relative to concerns about the economy/Fed/stocks, we can use...

Tuesday’s monthly labor report provided us with an excellent opportunity to monitor investors’ expectations about the important battle between economic forces that create inflation and those that create deflation.

Global trade has an enormous impact on both the financial markets and worldwide economy. Therefore, when the currency that serves as the guidepost for valuing assets drops 1%, it impacts investor decisions across all asset classes.

The stock market was trading in an up and down fashion Tuesday as the negotiations in our capital dragged toward the October 17 deadline.

Markets tend to be a bit obsessive. In recent months, traders shifted from taper-gate to familiar political posturing in Washington, D.C. The next obsession may be earnings.

According to media reports, Janet Yellen will be formally announced Wednesday as the nominee to head the Fed.

Before giving in to some late day selling, the stock market was holding up relatively well Monday given the negative drag from the budget talks in Washington. A positive offset came out of the Midwest.

While there is no question the political drama in our nation’s capital is a negative for stocks, will it derail the bull market in stocks? Obviously, it is too early to definitively answer that question, but we can monitor the market’s current temperature using risk-on vs. risk-off ratios.

You can say a lot of things about working in the money management business, but you cannot include the words dull or boring in your commentary. The markets finally got past the overly anticipated September Fed meeting...

Just two short days ago the Fed told us the economic data did not justify tapering their monthly bond purchases.

Wednesday before the markets opened and several hours before the Fed dropped the “no-taper” bomb on the investing public...

In terms of the impact on the financial markets, the closer this week’s Fed statement comes to meeting market expectations, the better for the stock market bulls.