Daniel Amerman CFA's Contributions

Dan Amerman on the Cycles of Crises and Containment

May 6 – Last year Dan Amerman told listeners that we would likely return to a swift and protracted bout of zero percent interest rates once the next crisis hit. Given that's exactly where we are today, FS Insider caught up with Dan to further...

Podcast: Recessions, Yield Curve Inversions, and Negative US Interest Rates

Aug 20 – Given the recent yield curve inversion between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bond, which has everyone in the financial world talking, FS Insider interviews Dan Amerman to discuss the relationship between yield curve inversions and...

Fed Hints at Frequent Bouts of Zero Percent Interest Rates

Feb 05 – FS Insider interviews Dan Amerman to discuss “The Coming Return of Zero Percent Interest Rates” and how even the Fed believes that bouts of zero rates may be more frequent in the future. Dan explains why that is and what this...

The Coming Return of Zero Percent Interest Rates

Jan 28 – Over the last forty years and five recessions, the Federal Reserve has forced short-term interest rates down by an average of about 7.25% per recession. This response to recession of rapidly decreasing interest rates has been 100% reliable in the modern era...

The Cycle That Saves Home Buyers $3,000 Per Year Just Ran Out of Fuel

Nov 5 – Home buyers in every city and state have benefited from a powerful financial cycle for almost five years. Most people are not aware of this cycle, but it has lowered the average monthly mortgage payment for home buyers on a national basis...

Loss of Yield Curve "Shock Absorber" Could Mean a Rough Ride Ahead for Markets & Housing

By Daniel Amerman – Two important financial cycles are currently converging for the first time in more than ten years, and how they work in combination can provide key information about the future value of our retirement portfolios, the future prices of our homes...

A Remarkably Accurate Warning Indicator for Economic & Market Peril

By Daniel Amerman – Would you have appreciated a single number that could have given you a clear and unmistakable warning before the tech stock bubble collapsed? How about an unequivocal mathematical warning in...

Increasing the National Debt By $6 Trillion in One Committee Meeting

By Dan Amerman – Could a committee of unelected officials increase your household's share of the national debt by $60,000 in a single meeting? In normal times - they could not. However, these are not normal times and any...

The ABCs of Popping a Third Asset Bubble

By Dan Amerman – Movies can have quite predictable plot lines that we know in advance - but we love them anyway. It could be a romance, where the girl is going to end up with the right guy through a series of improbable events...

The Wealth Machine That Rising Interest Rates Create and the Conflict with the National Debt (Part 2)

By Dan Amerman – Compound interest is an extraordinarily powerful financial tool, and reinvesting the cash flows received from investments has historically been the single most reliable way of building wealth over the long term.

Will Fed Rate Hikes Lead to an Out of Control Debt Spiral?

Mar 9 – FS Insider interviews Dan Amerman—author, speaker, and financial consultant at DanielAmerman.com—to discuss why a “nation that is $20 trillion in debt has fundamental constraints when it comes to interest...

The Potential $54 Trillion Cost of the Fed's Planned Interest Rate Increases

By Daniel Amerman – The United States national debt is currently about $20 trillion, and the federal government is paying some of the lowest interest rates in history on that debt. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates five times now...

Predicting Dow One Million – Was Warren Buffett Being Bold or Overly Cautious?

By Daniel Amerman – In a recent speech, Warren Buffett came down boldly on the side of optimism when it comes to both the economy and financial markets. What he said was "being short America has been a loser's game...

The Profoundly Personal Impact of the National Debt on Our Retirements

By Daniel Amerman – In this analysis, we will take a look at something deeply personal – which is how the $20 trillion United States national debt may change the day-to-day quality of life for savers and retirees in the decades ahead.

How Planned Fed Rate Increases Impact the National Debt & Deficits

By Daniel Amerman – The United States national debt is currently about $20 trillion, and the federal government is paying some of the lowest interest rates in history on that debt. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates four times...

Dan Amerman on Imminent Surge in Entitlement Costs

Dec 28 – America is facing an “imminent multi-trillion dollar surge in Social Security and Medicare costs,” writes Dan Amerman. Today, he discusses why this will happen and what it means for US national debt, retirement savings...

The Imminent Multi-Trillion Dollar Surge In Social Security & Medicare Costs

For decades we have known that the time would come when Social Security & Medicare costs would begin a rapid and explosive growth upwards. That time is no longer the distant future - but something that will take place next year...

Dan Amerman: Beginning Stages of a Public Pension Crisis

Oct 6 – When it comes to the massive underfunding of public pension funds, which many are relying on for their future retirement, Dan Amerman has crunched the numbers, done the math, and, based on his analysis, says the truth is...

Pension Shortfalls Could Be 4X to 7X Greater Than Reported

The California Public Employees Retirement System is the largest public pension in the United States. It is considered to be the bellwether for pensions nationwide, and among the most sophisticated of long-term investors.

Italian Banks & Moving the Risk During Crisis

Europe is changing by the hour and the day at this point. In this analysis, I'm going to take a quick look at critical events that have happened in Italy in the last day or so, and how they relate to my recent Video Guide to Bail-Ins series. I will be using three current Bloomberg articles that...

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