Christopher Quigley's Contributions

With the development of Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s) it has never been easier to embrace the concept of “Asset Allocation Investing.” These ETF’s cover stocks, commodities, bonds, currencies, real estate et al. As the BHB study above indicate an active managed pension fund that chooses individual stocks and bonds does not necessarily mean a more profitable portfolio. The use of indices or ETF’s as investment vehicles however does remove a great deal of the risk associated with “raw” equity, real estate, commodity or bond ownership.

Last week, on “black Thursday” the Irish government in essence finally nationalized Allied Irish Bank. In response to the horrific national financial picture painted by Mr. Brian Lenihan, Ireland’s finance minister, Peter Sutherland, former Irish attorney general, hit the media road. Mr. Sutherland’s mantra was similar to that previously presented by his acolyte Mr. Honohan (head of the Irish Central Bank). This mantra stated that though the figures were lamentable they were “manageable.”

Currently the Irish economy is in freefall following the collapse of the real estate market that had expanded ten fold in the decade from 1997 – 2007. The reasons for this “Celtic Tiger” boom are many but in the main it arose due to the following:

Success in a career in investing requires knowledge, patience, focus and discipline. It is not a path to “getting rich quick”. When you see such “quicky” schemes advertised for any investment “product” you should run a mile. “Quick rich” schemes aside, disciplined investing can offer excellent returns when married to the “magic” of compounding.

Traders and investors please be aware that the “Flash Crash” of May 6th. was not an isolated incident. I attach two recent examples of similar “events”. The forces that worked in May last are still alive and functioning, however, rather than directing their forces market-wise, they are now targeting specific stocks with very profitable consequences.

For those interested in trading our advice is still to move on technical signals in bear momentum ETFs such as “TZA” (small cap.) or “TYP” (technology). For those interested in a bullish momentum trade I would keep focused on the emerging market ETF “EDC” but this needs to break through the 24 dollar level before it will be a trading candidate in my books.