Aug 7 – As a follow-up to my warnings last month prior to the recent correction, several areas are at make-or-break inflection points that we are watching closely for signs of a bottom in the overall market or for a further break from current levels...
Jul 24 – Further warning signs are continuing to build that give us caution on the outlook for equities. High yield option-adjusted spreads (OAS) are not confirming the new high in the S&P 500 and have worsened over the last three weeks. Same for...
Jul 18 – The technical picture of the US stock market isn't all that healthy right now. In fact, the only other time we have seen divergences in breadth this large was during the blow-off years of the tech bubble. Bottom line: Breadth levels are warning of a possible market top...
Jun 12 – Historically, the market rallies post the first Fed rate cut and continues to do so as long as the onset of a recession is at least a year out. However, when a recession begins less than a year out from the Fed’s first cut the market’s initial rally quickly fades...
Mar 27 – One of the areas of concern cited by the Fed last year was the leveraged loan market, which took a nose dive in Q4. This space had a strong Q1 rally but has since peaked and is rolling over again. Looking at corporate credit default swaps...
Mar 22 – The answer to that question depends on what one believes were the ultimate causes of the decline and what the outlook is for 2019. If you believe the fourth quarter 2018 decline was largely...
Mar 15 – Today we look at what the consensus believes—the Fed is done raising interest rates, earnings and the economy are set to rebound, and the market outlook is still positive. We address each of these in the context of our own...
Mar 1 – It was a mixed week on Wall Street. This week’s technician, Tom McClellan, talks about that volatility. He is bullish and says stocks are going higher. We also have another installment of Smart Macro with Chris Puplava where we look at global LEI’s...
Feb 08 – Oil prices hit multi-year highs in 2018, but by year-end fell nearly 40 percent. Now a month into 2019 stock prices are rising and oil prices have somewhat recovered. In this edition of the Big Picture Jim and Chris discuss waivers for Iranian oil, increased production by...
Feb 07 – At the onset of 2018, market soothsayers gave their outlooks for the year. The consistent theme from every economic commentator and investment strategist was jubilation for the most synchronized global growth period since the 2008 ...
Dec 14 – Next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting outcome will likely end the market’s consolidation over the last two months. If the Fed turns a deaf ear to the market and does not signal a pause...
Nov 12 – The S&P 500 fell 6.9 percent last month, making it the third worst month since the bull market began nearly 10 years ago. The decline was sharp and swift with some U.S. companies losing over $10B in market capitalization...
Aug 18 – In today’s Big Picture podcast, Ryan and Chris Puplava discuss the international trigger points that may set off a risk-off correction in global markets. They look at Turkey, Italy, the US dollar, technical concerns...
By Chris Puplava – In our Q3 2018 newsletter (And Then There Were None) we highlighted three concerns we felt could ultimately weigh on US markets, causing them to resync with global equities, which have been declining for most of the year...
By Chris Puplava – It seems as though every year we have a scare in Europe and, if it’s not Greece, then it’s another member of the infamous “PIGS” countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain). This year, Italy is in the spotlight...
By Chris Puplava – Over the last year, we have progressively seen global equity markets undergo significant declines from their highs while U.S. markets have remained resilient. This is likely due to the tax stimulus passed last year as well as record corporate...
Jul 7 – For the first half of 2018, emerging markets are down almost 8%. Developed markets ex-US are down 4.5%. Emerging market currencies are also down big this year and bonds haven’t fared well either. About the only thing...
Jun 23 – FS Insider interviews Financial Sense® Wealth Management CIO Chris Puplava on the QE unwind by the Fed and other central banks now putting pressure on emerging markets, the high yield debt market, and other...
By Chris Puplava – Deutsche Bank credit default swaps (insurance against default risk) are moving back up today. Unicredit (Italian Bank) CDS moving back up after a 2-3 day respite while the stock price remains weak. At the same time, there has been NO rally...
Jun 1 – FS Insider interviews Financial Sense Wealth Management CIO Chris Puplava on the QE unwind by the Fed and other central banks now putting pressure on emerging markets, the high yield debt market, and other...
