Marc Chandler's Contributions

There has been a surge of interest and activity in what have been dubbed crypto-currencies. According to the Economist, the market cap for this space is around $60 bln, and a founder of one of the crypto-to-crypto exchanges estimates...

The US dollar has drifted lower against most of the major currencies as the culmination of news from Washington, escalating already rising concerns about the economic agenda that was to bolster growth with dramatic tax reform, infrastructure...

The VIX, the volatility of the S&P 500, is sometimes touted as a "fear index." Today is it extending its push below 9%, to fall to its lowest in nearly a quarter of a century. There has been four (Finland, Austria, the Netherlands, and France) successive...

The Federal Reserve's real broad trade-weighted dollar fell for the first three months of 2017, and the greenback's heavy tone this month has raised questions about the state of the bull market. Despite this recent weakness, we think the bull...

US jobs growth slowed considerably more than expected in March and the disappointment pushed the dollar and equities initially lower. The US created 98k jobs in March, well below market expectations for around 175k jobs. Adding insult to...

UK Prime Minister May got the parliamentary approval the courts ruled was necessary to formally trigger Article 50. It is not clear what UK she will lead out of the EU. Scotland is beginning the legal proceedings to hold another...

The mercantilist inclination by the Trump Administration makes it seem as if exports are good and create jobs and imports are bad and cost jobs. This is simply not true. This assessment is not based on newfangled thinking about trade.

The focus in the market is shifting away from the Federal Reserve, for which the consensus recognizes that the FOMC minutes probably make a March hike less likely. The CME's calculations put the odds at less than 18%, while the Bloomberg estimate...

The Dollar Index is extending its advancing streak today into its eighth consecutive session. It is at its best level since just before Trump's inauguration. It has retraced 38.2% of its decline from the January 3 high of 103.82.

Reports suggest that recently President Trump asked National Security Adviser Michael Flynn about whether it was a strong or weak dollar that was in the US interest. According to the leaks, Flynn suggested asking an economist.

The US dollar is broadly lower against major and emerging market currencies. It has given up yesterday's gains and more. The proximate cause appears to be comments by President-elect Trump in a Wall Street Journal interview. There are two parts of Trump's comments...

Oil prices rallied yesterday following the EIA weekly data and are up further today. Despite the rise in US inventories (4.1 mln barrels) more than four times greater than expected, participants focused on other details.

Japan stands out with industrial production in Nov. rising 1.5%, which is the most it has raised in five months. It was a little less than expected, but the expectations for Dec. (2%) and Jan. (2.2%) are constructive.

As was the campaign and the initial appointments, the election of an unorthodox candidate promises to change the way things are done in Washington. However, just as there were some continuities between Obama and Bush...

After softening ahead of the weekend, the US dollar has begun the new week on a firm note. It is gaining against most major and emerging market currencies. Outside of what appears to be a staged call between US President Elect Trump...

After an initial wobble, the markets have stabilized as two themes emerge: reflation and the spread of populism. The shift away from monetary policy towards fiscal policy had already begun, and both US presidential candidates...

There were two dogs that did not bark this year. The Japanese yen, which despite negative interest rates and an unprecedented expansion of the central bank's balance sheet, strengthened 15% against the dollar.

The price of oil has risen more than 20% over the past month. It is being driven by ideas that OPEC (and Russia) may implement a freeze or an output cut at the end of next month. At the same time, US crude stocks trended lower.

There are two main interpretative frameworks that seek to explain slow growth and low interest rates. The first is associated with Rogoff and Rinehart. They argue that the recent economic performance is largely what should be expected...