To facilitate comparisons, we've adjusted the two P/E ratios and Q Ratio to their arithmetic means and the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite to its exponential regression. Thus the percentages on the vertical axis show...
The Latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through April 17. The headline number of 95.2 was a substantial drop from the revised March final reading of 101.4...
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as...
The latest issue of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends is out today. The April update for March came in at 95.2, a 2.8 drop from the previous month and the lowest reading in nine months. The index is now at...
We are clearly experiencing a structural change in employment, one that is a major drag on the overall economy. The fact this change was exacerbated by a business cycle downturn should not blind us to its structural nature...
Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull? At this point, over five-and-a-half years later, the S&P 500 has set an inflation-adjusted record high based on monthly averages of daily closes...
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.
The Latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for February is now available. The index rose 0.2 percent, which follows a 0.2 percent January increase and a 0.4% December increase. The latest number...
Today's month-over-month increase of 0.09 percent (to two decimal places) follows a downwardly revised -0.38 percent in January. Today's headline number came in below the consensus expectations, which ranged from...
The Advance Retail Sales Report released this morning shows that sales in February came in at -0.6% month-over-month, which comes on top of a -0.8% in January and a -0.9% decline in December. Core Retail Sales...
Today the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for February. The latest headline PMI was 52.9 percent, a decline from the previous month's 53.5 percent and below...
The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYXdata website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let's examine the numbers and study the relationship between...
The Latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for January is now available. The index rose 0.2 percent but December was revised downward from 0.5 percent to 0.4 percent and November from...
The Big Four average in recent months suggests that, despite the rebound in GDP in Q2 and Q3, the economy remains near stall speed. The chart and table below illustrate the performance of the generic Big Four with an overlay...
Every week I post an update on new unemployment claims shortly after the BLS report is made available. My focus is the four-week moving average of this rather volatile indicator. The financial press generally takes...
The Advance Estimate for Q4 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 2.6 percent, a decline from 5.0 percent in Q3. Today's number disappointed mainstream economists' estimates, which were for a a smaller decline.
The January Advance Report on December Durable Goods released on today by the Census Bureau was a major disappointment. Here is the Bureau's summary on new orders...
Today's seasonally adjusted 307K came in above the Investing.com forecast of 300K. The four-week moving average at 306,500 is now 27,500 above its 14-year interim low set eleven weeks ago.
The Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for January came in at 98.1, a strong surge from last month's final reading of 93.6. This is the highest level of sentiment in eleven years. Today's sentiment level...
The Advance Retail Sales Report released this morning shows that sales in December came in at -0.9% (-0.94% at two decimals) month-over-month, down from a downwardly revised 0.4% in November.
