Pater Tenebrarum's Contributions

Misconceptions About Gold

Few markets are as widely misunderstood and subject to as many misconceptions as the gold market. Many of these misconceptions stem from gold’s dual characteristics as a commodity and money. Is it actually...

Monetary Tectonics – The New Incrementum Chart Book

In the aftermath of the 2008 crisis, it has become clear that markets are locked in a battle with policymakers. In an unhampered free market the crisis would have been followed by a sizable deflation of uncovered money substitutes.

Paul Krugman Sallies Forth to Save France from Austerity

From his perch at the NYT, Paul Krugman informs us that he has detected a 'Plot Against France', because credit rating agency S&P has dared to downgrade the government's debt to 'AA' from 'AA+'.

St. Yellen’s Ascension to the Throne

Most stories about central banking and central bankers in the mainstream financial press follow a certain pattern. For instance, the idea that these central planning institutions may not only be superfluous but may be downright harmful is considered utterly beyond the pale of debate.

The Hygienically Challenged Crack-Up Boom

Readers may recall that we have reported on the toilet paper shortage in Venezuela before. At the time our suggestion to the Venezuelan authorities was to simply replace toilet paper with the country's currency...

Government ‘Shutdown’, or the Big Yawn

Apparently the unresolved back and forth between House and Senate concerning the 'Obamacare' bill in the run-up to the debt ceiling cut-off date on October 17 will lead to what is breathlessly referred to as a 'government shutdown' in the media.

Paul Krugman and the Crisis

Krugman’s ‘Cri de Coeur’

When exactly did Keynes' influence 'fade'? There was a brief moment when it appeared he might be pushed of his pedestal by the monetarists in the 1970s, but to argue that there is little left of his influence in academia is baffling, to say the least.

Central Bankers, Modern Day Witchdoctors

As our long time readers know, we regard the Financial Times' editorial line in monetary matters as terribly misguided. The paper is strongly in favor of Keynesian recipes and central economic planning.

What’s Behind the Weakness in Treasury Bonds?

First of all, the amount of foreign selling is really quite small compared to the size of the market, although it is undoubtedly the case that what used to be a tailwind has become a headwind.

What Do Declining COMEX Inventories Signify?

We have come across many articles recently discussing the decline in COMEX inventories and/or the decline in inventories held by physical gold ETFs like GLD. Invariably the writers conclude that these inventory declines must be a bullish sign.

Global Business Confidence Slips to Multi-Year Low

Markit has released its global business confidence survey, and it makes for sobering reading. Due to sharp declines in business confidence in both the US and China, a new post crisis low has been reached in June.

Hidden Risks at German Banks

Regarding the risks in Germany's banking system, it should be pointed out that large German Banks are among the most highly leveraged in Europe relative to their net tangible capital.

JGB Yields – A Bullish Consolidation

Given that the inflationary policy the BoJ has embarked on is likely to be maintained or even intensified once Abe wins the upper house elections, it wouldn't be surprising if the breakout in yields were to follow on the heels of the election.

In Gold We Trust, 2013 Edition

In spite of this year's decline in the gold price, we still trust in gold, one might say. There are a few valid reasons for the recent bearish trend, some of which Ronald dissects; nevertheless, the bet remains that it is very likely undergoing a large degree correction in a secular bull market.

Serious Trouble Erupts in China’s Interbank Lending Markets

Following the FOMC announcement (although there is probably no direct causal relationship, it is still noteworthy that this temporal coincidence occurred), interbank lending rates (SHIBOR) and repo rates in China went absolutely ballistic overnight.

The Limits of Resource Nationalism

There is a new reality various governments still dreaming of imposing 'windfall taxes' and other measures of this type on companies involved in the extraction of resources will have to face.

Keeping an Eye on Treasuries: Yields Begin to Rise

Over the past two weeks, treasury note yields have risen rather vigorously from a higher low. As a side effect of this, mortgage rates are now increasing in spite of Bernanke's truly massive purchases in that sector.

Shinzo Abe’s True Agenda

Japan's current economic policy also has strong mercantilist overtones, as the devaluation of the currency is held to help its export sector.

Francois Hollande’s Latest Cunning Plan

Hollande is – similar to many of his predecessors – apparently very concerned about keeping France's unique cultural heritage alive and kicking, even if that means he has to invent and/or raise a few more taxes here or there.

Reinhart and Rogoff Let Their Inner Inflationist Hang Out

Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff are apparently eager to repair their dented reputation with the economic mainstream. After having to endure and fend off an attack of Keynesian deficit spenders...

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