Lance Roberts's Contributions

GOP Election Win Was a Message About the Economy

Recently, voters across the nation sent a very clear message to Washington D.C. by putting conservative Republican's firmly in charge of both houses of Congress. That message was "the economy sucks."

Are Robo-Advisors Warning of a Late Stage Bull Market?

I have regularly written about the many shortcomings of human psychology when it comes to investing. The emotions of "greed" and "fear" are the predominant drivers of not only investor behavior over time but also the development and delivery of the financial products that they use.

50% Profit Growth and Historical Realities

As the markets push once again into record territory the question of valuations becomes ever more important. While valuations are a poor timing tool in the short term for investors, in the long run valuation levels have everything to do with future returns.

The Coming Market Meltup and 2016 Recession

It has been a bit of a bumpy ride for stocks as we kick off the New Year, however, it hasn't been a real disaster either. Of course, you wouldn't know that by the hand wringing and whining going on with mainstream analysts and portfolio managers.

The Only Employment Chart That Matters

The most recent release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on employment for the month of December was mostly disappointing with far fewer jobs created than originally thought (74,000 vs 200,000).

Market Bulls Should Consider These Charts

There have been a litany of articles written recently discussing how the stock market is set for a continued bull rally. The are some primary points that are common threads among each of these articles which are...

Do Stocks Offer Protection Over Rising Rates?

There is a rising belief that when the Federal Reserve begins to taper that interest rates are set to rise. It is believed that as rates rise due to stronger economic strength that the stock market will act as a hedge against falling bond prices.

QE Deflationary? No Kidding!

There was a very "wonkish" article by Stephen Williamson over the weekend discussing the impact of quantitative easing on inflationary expectations. The article is filled with economic equations discussing interest rates and inflationary expectations but...

QE’s Economic Miss & Future Valuation Overshoot

In yesterday's post, I discussed why I agreed with Jeremy Grantham's recent prognostication that stocks could rise another 30% from current levels. That agreement was not from some fundamental valuation story...

Too Much Bubble Talk

"Bubble, Bubble, Toil And Trouble," discussions of a market bubble have dominated the media as stocks have continued to rise unabated.

The Most Dangerous Line Uttered During the Debt Ceiling Debate

This morning there is a great sense of relief that has swept the nation as news flowed through the media that the government shutdown had come to an end. After all, during the 16 days of the shutdown...

Retail Sales Slow As Shopping Season Heats Up

While the specter of the debt ceiling debate continues to haunt the halls of Washington D.C. it is the state of retail sales that investors should be potentially focusing on.

ObamaCare vs. Affordable Care Act

While the battle in Washington continues to be waged for a second day, with the House Republicans now offering to return to the constitutional process of funding government operations on a singular basis...

Beating Indexes, Chasing Unicorns

The index is a mythical creature, like the Unicorn, and chasing it takes your focus off of what is most important - your money and your specific goals. Investing is not a competition and, as history shows, there are horrid consequences for treating it as such.

The Long View on Interest Rates

There has been much discussion as of late about the need for interest rates to rise as they have been historically way too low for too long. However, is that really the case?

CFNAI: Updating the Most Important Economic Number

Unlike backward-looking statistics like GDP, the CFNAI is a forward looking metric that gives some indication of how the economy is likely to look in the coming months.

Why the Unemployment Rate Is Irrelevant

The media, the financial markets and investors have become fixated on the unemployment rate, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, particularly since it was directly linked by the Federal Reserve to its current bond buying program.

Post-GDP Revisions Reveals Weaker Economy

On the surface the initial release of the first estimate for gross domestic product, for the second quarter of 2013, surprised to the upside coming in at 1.7%.

“Housing” - Is It Really Recovering?

There has been much hoped placed on the "housing recovery story" over the last couple of years as it relates to the economy. With each passing month all eyes have been glued to television screens, and headlines, as the latest estimations of housing starts, completions, new and existing home sales, etc. are trumpeted as a sign of a renewed housing cycle.

Something Amiss With Retail Sales Numbers

The recent release of the June retail sales number was largely ignored by the financial markets. Yes, the number did come in weaker than expected but there were some important things to pay much closer attention to.

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