Tim Duy PhD's Contributions

By Tim Duy PhD – With incoming data brighter and suggesting that the first quarter slowdown was indeed temporary, a June rate hike looks more certain than not. But why are they even contemplating raising rates at all given recent inflation numbers?

I have seen some angst recently over declining growth in commercial bank lending. See, for example, the Wall Street Journal: "Bank loans across all categories are increasing 4.6% annually, the slowest pace since 2014, according to weekly...

If there is one thing that I am fairly sure that monetary policymakers hate, it is the idea that the outcomes of their meetings are preordained. November appears to be just such a meeting. To be sure, Fed hawks want to believe the meeting...

The June FOMC meeting is live. That message came through loud and clear in the minutes and was subsequently confirmed by New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley. Last week, via Reuters...

Incoming data continues to support the narrative that the US economy is not, I repeat, not, slipping into recession. Instead, the US economy is most likely continuing to chug along around 2 percent year over year.

The Fed has proven very dovish since their December rate hike. Tumultuous financial markets gave the Fed doves the upper hand, leading the Fed to pause in it’s “normalization” campaign and cut in half the expected pace of rate hikes this year.

I don't think the Fed will raise in March, nor do I think they should raise in March. I think the financial markets signaled fairly clear that further tightening now would be a mistake. The Fed would be wise to heed that call.

The recession drumbeat grows louder. This is not unexpected. Most forecasters have an asymmetric loss function; the cost of being wrong by missing a recession exceeds the cost of being wrong on a recession call. Hence economists tend to over-predict recessions. Eight of the last four recessions or...

What do I expect to see in 2016? Briefly, here are my baseline expectations for the year: 1.) No recession. I think that fears of recession in 2016 are overblown. Softness in the manufacturing sector is the primary motivation for such fears, but this ignores the declining economic importance of...

We get fresh national readings from the Institute of Supply Management this week. Still, even if the numbers are on the soft side, there is little I think that will dissuade officials from hiking rates in December. With unemployment at 5% and wage growth picking up to confirm receding slack in...

Federal Reserve policymakers have pretty much taken all of the mystery out of this next meeting. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer, via Reuters, "In the relatively near future probably some major central banks will begin gradually moving away from near-zero interest rates...

I tend to believe that growth has peaked for this cycle, or, more accurately, that sustaining these growth rates will likely require faster productivity or labor force growth. Indeed, it appears the Fed will force such an outcome if they remain committed to...

I expect the Fed will pass on raising rates this meeting. This is a highly contentious issue, and reasonable arguments can be made for either case. Economists appear to be roughly split, while financial market participants...

Last year, I would have said you were crazy if you told me that short-term rates would still be hugging zero even as unemployment fell to 5.1 percent. Yet here we are, gearing up for a FOMC meeting that promises to...

Monday's action on Wall Street was too much for the Fed. That day, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Dennis Lockhart pulled back his previous dedication to a September rate hike earlier, reverting to only an expectation that rates rise...

The US economy is an island of mediocre tranquility in the midst of the stormy sea of the global economy. Tranquil enough to keep the Fed eyeing its first rate hike despite the surrounding storm, but sufficiently mediocre...

Federal Reserve policymakers just can't catch a break lately. Riding on the back of strong data in the second half of last year, they were positioning themselves to declare victory and begin the process of policy normalization...

The FOMC meeting ended largely as expected with a nod toward recent data improvement but no change in policy. It is still reasonable to believe that lift-off will occur in September, but only if incoming data removes any residual concern about...

As is well known, second quarter GDP growth is not off to a strong start, at least according to the Atlanta Federal Reserve staff. If this forecast holds, then the first half of 2015 will be very weak if not flat, slow enough that...

I came back from Spring Break vacation to find a detailed speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen that further lays the groundwork for rate hikes to begin later this year. The speech is a remarkably clear elucidation of her views and provides plenty of insight into what we should...