By Tom McClellan – I get asked a lot about the supposed problems with the NYSE’s Advance-Decline data, which some analysts claim is “contaminated” by the inclusion of NYSE-listed issues that are not “real stocks”.
By Tom McClellan – 10 years ago in June 2008, oil prices were making a top above $140/barrel, which turned out to be an exhaustive blowoff top. A steep collapse ensued, taking oil prices down to below $40 in January 2009.
By Tom McClellan – If this were a “normal” 2nd year of a presidential term, we would now be in a corrective period due to last until just before the mid-term elections. But as many in the press have noted, we do not have...
By Tom McClellan – Make me Emperor for a day, and I would compel the FOMC to outsource interest rate policy to the bond market. Why should we pay 12 experts, most with expensive Ivy League Ph.D. degrees, to do...
By Tom McClellan – Why is the VIX spiking now? Because now is when it is supposed to do that. Volatility and interest rates have an interesting relationship, going back many years. Higher interest rates pull money away...
By Tom McClellan – The stock market is just coming out of a big rogue wave event. And that gives us clues about what lies ahead. The term “rogue wave” gets used in other areas of science, most notably in analysis of big...
By Tom McClellan – The latest data from Investors Intelligence showed a huge change this week. Bulls dropped from 66% to 54.4%, and bears rose from 12.6% to 15.5%. That means the spread between bulls and bears...
By Tom McClellan – There is no divergence yet between stock indices and the NYSE’s composite A-D Line. But there is one in the High Yield Bonds A-D Line, and that is an early warning of big trouble to come. High yield bonds...
By Tom McClellan – The folks at the American Institute of Architects, aia.org, publish an interesting set of data each month, collectively known as the Architecture Billing Index, or ABI. The main ABI represents...
By Tom McClellan – There is a strong positive feedback mechanism involving consumer sentiment and the economy. As conditions get better, people get more confident, which causes them to spend more, so...
By Tom McClellan – Even before President Trump’s Asia trip, Chinese 10-year sovereign bond yields have been pushing higher. And that means we should expect the same for US 10-year T-Note yields. I wrote about this relationship...
By Tom McClellan – The InterContinental Exchange (ICE) has just rolled out a new futures contract called the NYSE FANG+™, based on the original four FANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google) plus 6 others.
Nov 4 – This market is breaking all the rules, Tom McClellan, noted market timer and editor of the McClellan Market Report, tells Financial Sense Newshour. McClellan shares his technical thoughts on the US stock market, real estate prices...
By Tom McClellan – A late-August surge in gold prices has finally attracted traders back into SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), the largest of the gold bullion ETNs. This week’s chart looks at total assets held in the GLD Trust, which issues or...
By Tom McClellan – With the VIX Index down in the 9s, and with valuations at historic extremes, investors are wondering how long this all can last. The short answer is, MORE. The VIX Index made its all-time closing low...
By Tom McClellan – The VIX is a supposed “volatility index”, but it does not really measure actual volatility. Instead, it measures what options traders think about volatility. All of the various investment vehicles that have popped...
Junk bonds are the canaries in the stock market’s coal mine. If you want to know ahead of time that trouble is coming for the stock market, then one of the best places to look is the high-yield (or junk) bond market. The movements of prices...
Apr 22 – Where’s the market headed? You’ll definitely want to hear what well-known technician Tom McClellan of McClellan Market Report has to say as he makes the case for a strong rally into next month, followed by a June correction...
There is a giant wall of short positions held by the smart-money “commercial” traders in crude oil futures, and it is going to lead oil prices to come crashing down. Each week, the CFTC reports on the numbers of long and short positions held by futures traders...
When investors get complacent, they do certain things. They show up as bullish in the various surveys. They bid tiny premiums on options, driving down the VIX. They put all of their cash to work, letting money market fund levels get...
