Tom McClellan's Contributions

The latest numbers out of Investors Intelligence show that bulls are now up to 47.4% in their survey of newsletter writers and investment advisors, and bears are now down to 27.8%. That takes the bull-bear spread up to its largest value since...

On March 3, the McClellan A-D Oscillator hit a reading of +332, which was its highest reading since the +386 reading seen on Jan. 6, 2009. The cause of that high reading has been a big surge in positive breadth days for the NYSE ever since the Feb. 11, 2016 price low...

A high reading for the Choppiness Index means that a new trending move is likely to start. But it does not tell us in which direction. The Choppiness Index was developed by Australian commodities trader E.W. Dreiss. The idea is to...

There is an indicator known as TICK, which measures the difference between the number of stocks going up at any moment versus those going down. In effect, it is like a momentary Advance-Decline difference. It also has an interesting use as a sentiment indicator.

Fed officials and financial news reporters are collectively wondering why the economy seems to be slowing down, even though lower oil and gasoline prices ought to be a stimulative factor. If consumers are spending less of...

Gold traders seem to be losing all hope and giving up. That is the message from the drop in total assets invested in GLD, the largest of the gold bullion ETFs. The total assets in that fund go up and down as more investors or fewer decide to be invested in it. The sponsoring firm, State Street...

Technicians have a lot of versions of a “breadth thrust” signal, and the basic idea is that the Advance-Decline numbers suddenly go from not so good to REALLY good in a short amount of time. The late Martin Zweig was...

The unemployment rate has not finished falling. That is the message from the data provided by the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers. In this week’s chart, I am comparing an inverted plot of the US civilian...

We are now in the second term of President Obama’s term in office. While the Presidential Cycle Pattern shows similarities among all presidential terms in the stock market’s behavior, it is poorly appreciated how the 2nd term is...

We focus a lot on the Advance-Decline (A-D) data, which is the basis for the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index plus other indicators. But we also like to watch what the Up Volume (UV) and Down Volume (DV) numbers are doing.

Before each of the really ugly bear markets of the past 30 years, there has been an important signal from housing data well ahead of time. We do not have such a signal now, and so that portends more upside in the months ahead for stock prices.

To review briefly, this week’s chart shows a comparison between the 2-year Treasury Note yield and the target rate for Fed Funds, which is set by the FOMC. The NY Fed is then tasked with adding or withdrawing...

The latest news from the American Institute of Architects (AIA) has some economists alarmed, because it shows a potential shrinkage in housing related activity. The AIA publishes data based on surveys of member firms...

It is widely believed among economists and currency analysts that currency values follow the relative interest rates. We are told, “Money goes where it is treated best”, and so the currency which offers the best...

The news out of the European Central Bank on Jan. 22 helped to lift the major averages higher. The DJIA and SP500 have not yet made it back up to the level of their December 2014 highs, but the Dow Jones Utility Average...

A new Congress has been seated, and it brings the prospect of perhaps maybe potentially in a possible way doing something about the runaway federal deficits. And in other news, several New York area bridges are for sale...

The two big financial news items in December have been the multiple Hindenburg Omen signals and the crash in crude oil prices. I recently went on CNBC to talk about the former. Its relationship to the latter is inescapable.

The data on the U.S. unemployment rate have been getting progressively better over recent months, either because of or in spite of the government’s efforts, depending on one’s viewpoint. And if this week’s chart is to be believed, then the data should continue to get better over the next several months.