The markets interpreted the minutes as a clear signal that the Fed is in no hurry to normalize rates. Even though the U.S. foreign exchange policy is under the control of the U.S. Treasury (instead of the Fed), the FOMC would clearly like to avoid...
The number of U.S. job openings is now running materially above the pre-recession levels. One would think the nation's unemployment rates should be at pre-2008 levels as well.
Today the dollar gave up much of its Friday's gains that were driven by stronger than expected U.S. employment situation report. We haven't seen such volatility in currency markets in some time. What happened?
The ongoing strengthening of the U.S. dollar could shift the FOMC further into dovish territory. While the labor situation continues to improve, the dollar's recent appreciation has contributed to declines in inflation expectations (based on TIPS breakevens) to multi-year lows.
One of the factors contributing to treasury market's strong performance this year has been the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR), a Basel III-based requirement for banks. These rules go into effect in 2015 and are phased in gradually through 2017 in the United States
A number of economists now believe that given the worsening economic crisis in Ukraine, the country's public debt problem is simply unsustainable and default is becoming increasingly likely.
Softer than expected economic growth in China (see discussion) has finally spurred the PBoC into action. However, rather than undertaking asset purchases that would inject reserves into the overall banking system, the PBoC forced liquidity directly into state-owned banks.
U.S. middle market leveraged buyout (LBO) transactions are becoming increasingly frothy. According to the latest data from Lincoln International, risk-return fundamentals in the space are worse than they were in 2007.
The media is generating a great deal of noise around the U.S. labor markets and it's worth going through some key facts, issues and trends. Let's do it in a Q&A format for clarity.
In addition to property market challenges and the unexpected slowdown in manufacturing expansion, we continue to see markets signaling a significant loss of momentum in China's economic growth.
Economists and central bankers tend to be less focused on what consumers pay at the grocery store because food and energy prices have historically been more volatile — remember, it's just "noise".
China's official housing index now shows home price appreciation slowing faster than some had anticipated. Other indicators are also pointing to weakness in China's housing markets. For example the number of cities with falling prices has spiked sharply.
If you read most media reports on People's Bank of China's latest monetary policy direction, it would seem that the central bank has only been focused on some targeted stimulus initiatives.
While many investors refuse to accept this fact, we are clearly marching toward higher treasury yields later in the year and in 2015. Even after today's bond selloff, we are still around the yield levels we had during...
What makes Janet Yellen and a number of other FOMC members so dovish with respect to monetary policy and in particular the trajectory of rate normalization? A Credit Suisse report sites 3 key factors, which Yellen calls “unusual headwinds"...
In spite of weakening economic growth, persistent credit contraction, and dangerously low inflation rate in a number of member states (chart below), the ECB continues to resist calls for Fed-style outright securities purchases.
