Peter Boockvar's Contributions

Feb 04 – What confidence data leads to we'll of course have to see but at the minimum if CEOs are more cautious, it naturally leads to a hesitancy on hiring and investment until they become more confident again. Please...

Jan 8 – The December NFIB small business optimism index did slip by .4 points to 104.4. That is the fourth straight month of declines that took the index down by a total of 4.4 points and it now sits at the lowest level since October 2017...

Dec 11 – Here is an updated chart of U.S. net worth as a percent of disposable income after the Fed released its third quarter flow of funds statement last week. We are now at 700 percent (699.9 percent to be exact). The late 1990s bubble...

Nov 6 – The October ISM services index fell 1.3 points to 60.3, however it was 1.3 points better than expected and is the second best print since 2005. Internally, new orders were little changed but backlogs did fall five points to a three month low...

By Peter Boockvar – For those paying attention to gold, the net speculative position as of last Tuesday, according to Friday’s CFTC data, went net long for the first time since August 7th. After nine weeks of shorts that got to the most since 2001, the net...

By Peter Boockvar – The National Federation of Independent Business released its Small Business Optimism Index for September that moderated to 107.9 from 108.8, which was the record high. Higher wages continued as current compensation...

By Peter Boockvar – We're there! 3.11% on the 10-year Treasury yield. Not only that, the 5-year is at 2.99%. Again, 3.11% was the high close for the year touched on May 17th. Any close above that would be the highest since July 2011. Big moment...

By Peter Boockvar – The NFIB small business optimism index for August rose almost 1 pt m/o/m to 108.8 and that is the highest level in the history of this survey dating back to 1973. Plans to Hire rose 3 pts to the most also on record. Capital spending...

By Peter Boockvar – Today is less about Turkey as the lira is up about 3% (after Turkey announced a limitation on banks level of currency swaps they can do which was being used to short the lira) vs the US dollar and...

By Peter Boockvar – The US ISM manufacturing index for July moderated by 2.1 pts to 58.1 which is a 3 month low and puts it below the average year to date of 59.1. Of note, new orders fell 3.8 pts to 60.2, the lowest since...

By Peter Boockvar – The June ISM manufacturing index rose 1.5 pts m/o/m to 60.2 and that was above the estimate of 58.5. The components though were more mixed. New orders fell .2 pts, backlogs were lower by...

By Peter Boockvar – The weakness in global stock markets that started in Asia overnight is for obvious reasons. People are losing some patience with "It's just a negotiating tactic" reason for the tariffs because instead of leading to...

By Peter Boockvar – If only the curve could talk and tell us what it's thinking. The US 2s/10s spread is down to 42 bps, a fresh 11 year low. This after a slew of economic data was seen overseas and before key data in the US later today. Italian bonds are selling off...

By Peter Boockvar – China is discussing the end of all restrictions on having kids "according to people familiar with the matter" according to BN. They reported that "The State Council, China's cabinet, has commissioned research on the repercussions...

By Peter Boockvar – At 72% we are basically at the level we were at during the depths of the Great Recession in Q1 2009 while the US economy today is in the 9th year of an expansion. Corporate debt is where the leverage excess is and why this rise in rates...

By Peter Boockvar – It wasn't just the BLS inflation report that came out yesterday. The NY Fed's Underlying Inflation Gauge for March in its "full data set" increased to 3.14% from 3.07% in February. It's the 10th straight month of an increase in the y/o/y gains...

By Peter Boockvar – Both headline and core inflation as measured by PCE rose .2% m/o/m. The headline gain is 1.8% y/o/y, the highest since last March while the core rate was up by 1.6% y/o/y, also the most since then. Again, sticky services inflation...