Doug Noland's Blog

Senior Portfolio Manager

Doug Noland serves as senior portfolio manager of Federated Prudent Bear Fund, Federated Prudent DollarBear Fund and Federated Market Opportunity Fund. With more than 20 years of investment experience, he leads the nine investment professionals who comprise Federated’s Alternative Equity Management Team.

Before joining Federated, Doug was employed with David Tice & Associates, Inc. where he served as an assistant portfolio manager and strategist of Prudent B F Bear Fund and Prudent Global Income Fund. He earned a bachelor’s degree in accounting and finance from the University of Oregon and a master’s of business administration from Indiana University.

Difficult Decisions Ahead

The repricing of global bonds continued, despite escalating tensions in Syria and soft payroll data. The latest G20 meeting was dominated by deep divisions over Syria in an increasingly divisive global backdrop.

Introducing “Government Finance Quasi-Capitalism”

Bond yields shoot to two-year highs and equities take notice. Last week’s CBB evolved from notes prepared for a presentation I was to give. Instead, a lively Q&A session developed and I never got to my notes. So, I’ll take this opportunity to share analysis that introduces “Government Finance Quasi-Capitalism.”


Chairman Bernanke last week buttressed global markets with his “If financial conditions were to tighten to the extent that they jeopardized the achievement of our inflation and employment objectives, then we would have to push back against that” comment.

Kuroda’s Gambit

The Bank of Japan has appeared to support a much weaker yen, while believing its aggressive bond purchases would place an ongoing ceiling on bond yields.

Financial Euphoria

Tepper stokes the melt-up. “I am definitely bullish. The budget deficit is shrinking massively. Guys who are short, they better have a shovel to get out of the grave.” Hedge fund manager David Tepper, CNBC, May 14, 2013

Thoughts on the Electronic Printing Press

Global central banks around the world continue to push monetary easing like never before. The Fed and Bank of Japan currently combine for almost $180bn of monthly quantitative easing, an historic experiment in monetary inflation.

Too Much Asset Inflation

Thoroughly relishing his “I told you so” moment, Paul Krugman titled his Friday New York Times piece “Not Enough Inflation”: “Ever since the financial crisis struck, and the Federal Reserve began ‘printing money’ in an attempt to contain the damage, there have been dire warnings about inflation — and not just from the Ron Paul/Glenn Beck types.

Kuroda Leapfrogs Bernanke

Last August, in a CBB titled “Do Whatever it Takes,” I drew parallels between the progression of experimental global central bank “money printing” to the escalation of aerial attacks against civilians during WWII.

Cyprus and Money

It was a week of high-stakes drama for the euro zone. Last weekend saw Cyprus leaders and European officials agree to a “bail in” whereby bank depositors would be “taxed” to help pay for the cost of bailing out Cyprus’ troubled banking sector.

Insights from Former Fed Chairmen

CNBC’s Andrew Ross-Sorkin, March 15, 2013: “The question of the morning: Do you want to break out the phrase again, ‘irrational exuberance’?”

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