Doug Noland's Blog

Senior Portfolio Manager

Doug Noland serves as senior portfolio manager of Federated Prudent Bear Fund, Federated Prudent DollarBear Fund and Federated Market Opportunity Fund. With more than 20 years of investment experience, he leads the nine investment professionals who comprise Federated’s Alternative Equity Management Team.

Before joining Federated, Doug was employed with David Tice & Associates, Inc. where he served as an assistant portfolio manager and strategist of Prudent B F Bear Fund and Prudent Global Income Fund. He earned a bachelor’s degree in accounting and finance from the University of Oregon and a master’s of business administration from Indiana University.

The Fed, Chinese Tightening and Distribution

There is dissention as well as confusion at our central bank. There are (“many”) members that believe open-ended QE was a mistake – and that this policy error should be corrected as soon as possible. Others believe aggressive QE could be continued indefinitely, or at least until unemployment has been reduced to a comfortable level.

Hedge Funds Gone Wild

I posited that Mario Draghi this past summer “singlehandedly” altered the global financial landscape. This miraculous feat was made possible with his bold guarantee of unlimited ECB bond purchases to backstop troubled euro-zone bond markets and system liquidity more generally.

Ray Dalio, Deleveraging, and Liquidity Bubbles

As much as I respect Mr. Dalio’s analytical framework, I’ll continue to take exception with the general thesis that the U.S. has been moving through a successful “deleveraging” period.

Issues 2013

Let’s start with a little “right tail” pontification. In simplest terms, how crazy could things get this year? I recall how crazy the SE Asian Bubbles turned in the fateful post-Mexican bailout year of 1996.

2012 In Review

In response to deepening structural issues and in the face of ongoing global imbalances, central bankers further ratcheted up their runaway monetary experiment. Seemingly putting an exclamation point on an extraordinary year...

Recalling John Law

The monetary theorist John Law introduced paper money to France in the early eighteenth century. As an historic monetary expansion and speculative Bubble ensued, Mr. Law was revered. But when he lost control of his experiment – when his Mississippi Bubble scheme and the French economy later collapsed – Law was run out of the country.

Hotel California

At least for today (perhaps because I’m a little under the weather), when it comes to the Fed I’m about all ranted out. So this isn’t supposed to be a rant, but more an effort to tie together some loose analytical ends. Key facets of my Macro Credit Theory analysis seem to be converging: The myth of deleveraging, “liquidationist” historical revisionism, Rules vs. Discretion monetary management, and “Keynesian”/inflationist dogma.

Following Weidmann, Lacker Takes a Stand

It is inaccurate to blame the 2008/09 financial crisis for the lagging U.S. recovery. Poor post-Bubble economic performance instead relates directly to previous boom-time excesses.

When Money Dies

November 16 – Wall Street Journal (Damian Paletta and Carol E. Lee): “White House officials are in advanced internal discussions about a plan to replace the sweeping spending cuts set to begin in January with a smaller, separate package of targeted spending cuts and tax increases… They would cut spending by roughly $100 billion next year, and then for eight additional years…

Sandy, Bernanke and Money

In the face of human hardship, the big debate seems to be whether Sandy will be a positive or negative for GDP. Will rebuilding provide a needed boost to the U.S. economy? Is it good for stock prices?

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