Sober Look's Blog

Analyst

Sober Look is a no-hype financial markets/macro blog that typically relies on data analysis, primary sources, and original materials. We keep it concise, to the point, with no self-promoting nonsense, and no long-winded opinions. If you are looking for Armageddon predictions or conspiracy theories, you will be thoroughly disappointed. Topics include financial markets, global economy, asset management, risk management, derivatives, regulation, and policy, particularly as it pertains to capital markets.

The Harsh Realities of the Greece-Eurozone Game of Chicken

The Greece-Eurozone dispute has received a great deal of attention in the media in recent weeks. It seems however that contradicting statements and polarized views - many tainted by various political agendas...

The Canadian Housing Bubble in Six Charts

The Canadian housing market is very expensive. Median house price to median household income is higher in Vancouver than it is in Sydney, London, and New York. If rates rise or if commodity prices continue to...

Ukraine’s Impending Debt Restructuring

Diplomatic efforts are once again under way to establish a more lasting ceasefire in eastern Ukraine via the "Minsk peace talks redux". While Angela Merkel's diplomatic efforts should be applauded, chances for...

Greece’s Fight Against “Fiscal Waterboarding” Will Halt Economic Recovery

We are about to witness a historic showdown between the major euro area institutions and Greece. Greece's newly appointed finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, a staunch bailout critic, will lead the negotiations on debt haircuts.

Markets Pricing in Substantial QE Operation by the ECB

The market expects the banking system to be flooded with liquidity generated by quantitative easing for a long time. The area's banks will therefore prefer lending to each other at negative 8-12 basis points to depositing...

Rising Deflationary Risks in the United States

Unlike a number of other nations — especially some countries in Europe — the U.S. is currently not dealing with general price declines. However, the risks of such an occurrence have increased materially. This for example can be seen in...

Energy Prices Falling Across the Board: Charts

With all the focus on falling crude oil prices as well as sharp reductions in the cost of gasoline (including retail), jet fuel, and heating oil, it's easy to miss the fact that prices of other energy products have been hit quite hard as well...

If Energy Prices Remain Near Current Levels, Canada's Economy Is in Trouble

And so it begins… Collapsing crude prices are starting to make their way through the North American energy sector, as the most unprofitable oil & gas rigs are mothballed. Those flashing red numbers are not just on your screen any more.

Draghi Now Has All the Ammunition He Needs for QE - Implementation Still a Problem

If Mario Draghi was lacking ammunition to initiate an outright quantitative easing program in the Eurozone, he certainly has it now. Even the staunchest opponents will have a tough time arguing against...

The Fed's Policy Trajectory Is Tied to Global Recovery

The latest US payrolls report presents a challenge for the Fed. Labor markets are continuing to heal, suggesting that the rate "normalization" should be a serious consideration for the central bank. However, the recent deterioration...

Financial Sense Wealth Management: Invest With Us
apple podcast
randomness