Andrew Zatlin's Blog

Editor
Moneyball Economics

The Moneyball Economist Andrew Zatlin began his career as a trained economist, eventually focusing on consumer trends as a Research Fellow at the Kyoto University Economic Research Institute. Wanting more hands-on experience in the business world, he went to the Haas School of Berkeley for his MBA in 1992.

Andrew’s next stop was Silicon Valley at the onset of the digital revolution. The timing couldn’t have been better. As a 20-year veteran of the semiconductor and networking world, Andrew has participated in the emergence of the new global economy, one based on the unique characteristics of the digital world and a changing global supply chain.

The first-hand experience with the 21st century economy and what makes it so different has enabled Andrew to outperform Wall Street experts.His macroeconomic forecasts consistently rank at the top of Bloomberg polls. Even better, he has harnessed the deep understanding of the way modern companies operate to find the key data points that predict which companies are likely to beat or miss their earnings.

A Typical Pattern Shows We’re Headed for Recession

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We’re witnessing a very typical pattern right before recessions and market collapses. The market’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is currently at a level seen only before recessions. Before we flat out say there will be a recession, we need to dig...

August 2016 Vice Index: Is Vice Spending Slowing?

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The Vice Index indicates a sharp downturn in retail spending… beginning in the fourth quarter (October.). Regular Moneyball readers know the Vice Index is the best way to gauge the American consumer. It’s proprietary research...

July 2016 Vice Index: Is This the Last Hurrah?

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Vice spending is telling us that good times are still here, but it’s also signaling that we’re peaking. There is very little growth left and it’s likely that things will get a bit wobbly at year-end. This means a lot of Central Bank intervention...

No June Swoon, Bye Bye in July?

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Mr. Market (S&P 500) keeps hitting 2,100, only to pull back. That level is a psychological magnet, drawing investors closer. Failure to hold and advance above it means a top. You need to be concerned that the market hasn’t moved up...

Three Reasons Why We're Back to Late 2006

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Foreboding macroeconomic signals keep on popping up, and it would be wise to pay attention. In case you can’t tell, this is exactly like late 2006 with key (worse) differences: The macroeconomy has peaked: Jobless claims are barely below...

Time to Deflate the Deflation Expectations

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On recent earnings calls, restaurant chains were quick to declare that margins were safe thanks to a deflationary environment. For example, 40% of Denny’s (Nasdaq: DENN) non-labor costs are beef and eggs and the company has...

Semiconductor Earnings a Big Head Fake, Not Green Shoots

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Semiconductors are uniquely positioned as leading macroeconomic indicators. First, they are the most universally common denominator when it comes to products and services: if it doesn’t have a semiconductor chip in it...

Clouds on the Horizon for Vices

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For most American households, everything is fine. But for more and more households, things are not so good. The industrial sector’s recession has spread and it’s getting more impactful. That’s one leak. Another is that income growth is slowing.

Semiconductors Tell the Real Story of GDP

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Semiconductors are the universal common denominator of the 21st-century economy. Once upon a time, these parts were mostly found in only a few things: computers, calculators, and consumer electronics.

Right Now, Vices Are Awesome!

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In the eyes of consumers, everything is awesome. The stock market has rebounded in full and distant threats to disposable income (slowing wage growth, rising inflation, end of gas price-dividend) are exactly that, distant.

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