Given a basket of commodities, as measured by the CRB Index, is up a healthy 9.72% this month, it may be a good time to revisit the longer-term outlook. While the daily chart of the CRB is showing some signs of short-term fatigue, the outlook for the next three-to-six months still appears to be encouraging.
On December 8th, with the CRB Index trading at 315.62, we published the following chart and comments in Outlook for Commodities Remains Positive:
BEFORE: As of December 7th
If we think of the above chart as the “BEFORE” chart, the chart below is an updated version showing the CRB’s progress since the chart above was published on December 7, 2010.
Our December 7th comments expand on the relevance of the MACD indicator shown at the top portion of the charts shown above. If the CRB Index were to move to 350 sometime in the next few months, it would represent an additional gain of 5.83% from the December 29th close. Keep in mind, the comments above relate to the next few months; short-term pullbacks are always a possibility. A bullish outlook for commodities dovetails nicely with the positive 2011 first-half outlook for stocks in 2011.
