While all eyes were on the chart of the S&P 500 yesterday, it is safe to say that all eyes will be on Ben Bernanke this afternoon. More specifically, traders watched the resistance zone at 1343 on the S&P 500's daily chart to see if the blue chip index could follow the Dow's lead and break out to a fresh new high for the current bull market cycle. And then today, everyone in the game will be watching the Fed Chairman's first-ever press conference following the two-day FOMC meeting.
As has been the case lately, traders began to anticipate Tuesday that Mr. Bernanke isn't likely to say anything to upset the apple cart this afternoon. The consensus thinking is that Gentle Ben will deal with the reporters in a professional fashion, avoid talking about the dollar (after all, this is the Treasury Secretary's bailiwick), and confirm that interest rates aren't going up anytime soon.
So, with hopes high that the Fed will remain "friendly" traders recognized that the "risk trade" can continue working for some time yet. Thus, the dollar was sold to a new multi-year low and stocks were pushed to new highs. It probably didn't hurt that we were treated to another batch of decent earnings from some high profile industrial names such as Cummins (CMI), 3M (MMM), Agco (AGCO), and Illinois Tool (ITW).
Traders also got confirmation that the consumer is thus far relatively unfazed by the unrest in the Mideast, the tragedies in Japan, and the increase in oil prices. After taking a dive in March, sentiment surveys (including yesterday's Consumer Confidence Index) have held steady or improved.
Speaking of sentiment, it is clear that the mood on the street has made a u-turn over that past five sessions. The more upbeat attitude helped traders push the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Midcap indices to new cycle-highs on Tuesday. And more importantly, the S&P was able to produce an impressive breakout above the important resistance zone around 1340.
Without any real news to drive the action, it appears that a combination of short-covering and technical buying combined to trigger the jailbreak on the S&P. And given that the move occurred on higher volume than the day prior, the action is "all good" from a chart perspective. Thus, unless the bears can find a reason to produce a quick reversal, the textbooks tell us that the path of least resistance is higher for now.
