Note: The following report from Iraq was co-authored by Kifah Taha. Kifah is employed by a multi-national company in Mosul, Iraq.
Since the large draw down of American troops from Iraq, the situation in the country has been relatively stable. There is no street fighting to report and security has improved drastically. The Iraqis are regaining control of their country. They have total sovereignty over their borders, airports, and seaports. Oil production is back in full swing, exceeding 2.6 million barrels per day for the first time in 20 years. That being said however, Iraq continues to be a work in progress and is far away from being declared a success story.
The level of U.S. forces has dropped from 140,000 to 50,000 soldiers. On paper, the remaining troops are considered advisors, trainers, and support units for the Iraqi army and police. In reality, they are heavily mechanized army brigades with the best fighting soldiers in the world. For the large part, they are confined to their bases and do not partake in any combat operations. However, the mere presence of American troops in Iraq serves as a major stabilizing force, as they are feared by all factions in the country. Few years back, the last time insurgents challenged the U.S. military the fight was over quickly. In 2006 insurgents took to the streets of Sadr City, Talafar, Mosul, and Falujah in an attempt to fight the marines and armored cavalry units. The insurgents were wiped out within days by superior very well trained soldiers in street to street and house to house combat. Hence, the chapter of street fighting and combat operations in Iraq is history. However, suicide bombers, improvised explosive devices (IED's), and car bombs continue to be a problem.
Iraq faces potential external and internal threats to its stability. The external threat emanates from Iraq's four neighbors-- Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, and Syria. All four have their own interests and interfere in the country on a daily basis. The presence of the American military in Iraq is the only thing keeping Iraq's neighbors in check. Without the American presence, Iraq's neighbors are likely to confront each other militarily on Iraqi soil. The internal threat is even more serious and requires a significant amount of attention. The conflicting groups in the country are Arabs Sunnis, Arab Shias, and Sunni Kurds. The three form a confederacy of sorts, and have been de-facto segregated into separate areas; nonetheless hot spots remain throughout the country. Baghdad is almost split between Sunni and Shia areas. Kirkuk with its large oil fields is the center of dispute between the Kurds and Sunni Arabs, and the Mosul area is a border line, and a potential flashpoint that may erupt due to the unsettled boundaries of the central and northern provinces.
The continued American military presence in Iraq is essential for the country's stability. Without the presence of American forces the country would in all likelihood witness a civil war and massive ethnic cleansing between its three major groups. If Barak Obama maintains his campaign promise and pulls the remaining U.S. military personnel out of Iraq by the end of 2011, the country will collapse and disaster will hit this strange mosaic. The Iraqi government will probably ask for an extension of the U.S. military presence in the country at least through 2014. The United States will find it very hard not to oblige.
