The "great game" of the 19th and early 20th centuries involved Britain's attempt to keep other great powers from establishing a foothold in Central Asia that could threaten Britain's interest in India. The new "great game" involves players such as Iran, Turkey, Russia, and the United States vying for influence over the Caspian region and its oil supplies. For the United States and European countries, Caspian oil presents an opportunity to tap a source of oil outside the often turbulent Middle East.
The three main oil producing Caspian countries (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan) are landlocked and rely on neighboring countries for access to western markets through pipelines. This adds another aspect to the competition for economic and political dominance of the area. The actors are not only concerned with oil and gas production but also with the pipelines that deliver those resources to market. The United States supported the building of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, which became operational in 2006. The BTC pipeline begins in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, goes through Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia, and ends in the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. Because it bypasses Russia to the north and Iran to the south, the 1100 mile pipeline is believed to have contributed to American and European energy security. As for the three nations through which the oil will flow, the pipeline and the greater western involvement represent an opportunity to counterbalance Iranian and Russian influence in the south caucuses.
The BTC pipeline's maximum pumping capacity is one million barrels per day which represents only a small increment of the world's total daily demand of 85 million barrels per day. There are doubts concerning the Caspian's potential to become a major source of oil even with the construction of additional pipelines. In an article titled "The Caspian Oil Myth" published for Synthesis/Regeneration Magazine, Patrick Eytchison argues that the belief in "vast untapped Caspian oil riches" is a "myth manufactured by the United States Geological Services (USGS), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), governments of some of the newly independent Soviet states of the Caspian region, as well as the early hopes of some Western oil companies at the time of the breakup of the USSR." In reality the majority of Caspian oil fields may have began to peak as early as the 1950's which caused the Soviet Union to shift its major oil production from the caucuses to the Vulga region and Siberia.
Efforts aimed at new discoveries since the end of the Cold War materialized when oil deposits were found in an area known as East Kashagan of the coast of Kazakhstan in the Caspian Sea. The first estimates indicated a large discovery of 50 billion barrels. However, later more reliable estimates by the Offshore Kazakhstan North Caspian Operating Company would place the number at between 7 to 9 billion barrels. Citing a study by the consulting firm Wood Mackenzie estimating the total oil reserves for the five Caspian countries at little less than 40 billion barrels, Patrick Eytchison stresses "that Caspian oil is not the alternative to OPEC Middle Eastern oil once envisioned by some strategists." Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan do not come close to matching the oil reserves of the Persian Gulf countries of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates which are collectively estimated at 650 billion barrels. Of the five, Iraq has the greatest potential to boost its oil production. Iraq has 115 billion barrels of proven oil reserves. According to HIS Inc., a Colorado based business information company, Iraq may also have up to an additional 100 billion barrels in reserves in its western desert. A report prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS) estimates that a stable Iraq producing oil at full capacity is capable of an output of 6 million barrels per day. That would constitute a nearly 100% increase in production from present day levels.
The Persian Gulf region continues to be the most vital source of global oil consumption, far outweighing the significance of the Caspian Sea and other global oil producing areas.
