The Spanish public never liked President Bush's invasion of Iraq. This fact deserves honorable mention when discussing the upset victory of Spain's Socialist Party over the conservative Popular Party on Sunday. Some observers have suggested that last week's terrorist bombings somehow influenced Spanish voters; that it was a victory for terrorism. That may be true, in a sense, but there is more to the story.
Though they won the election, the Spanish socialists did not win a strict majority. A shift took place along the delicate middle ground of Spain's voting public. Some observers think the Aznar government shot itself in the foot by suggesting that Basque separatists were behind last week's train bombings. The Spanish people had the right to expect an honest assessment of who was responsible. Instead, they got a prejudiced assessment that was frightened of the truth. Laying blame according to political convenience was a betrayal of the public trust. It revealed an appalling lack of integrity on the part of the government. Aznar must have enjoyed a great reservoir of credibility before this misstep. But the damn broke and Aznar is out.
The outcome of the Spanish election was unfortunate for the United States. Since the Spanish are pulling out of Iraq, the Dutch and other allies are looking for an exit as well. Americans will tend to view Spain's decision as cowardice, especially since al Qaeda has taken credit for the train bombings and openly welcomes the victory of Spain's socialists. On its side, the Socialist Party of Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero has quickly moved to declare its own war on terror; but everyone knows that Spain will no longer support aggressive, preemptive action against terror-supporting states.
Americans already think of Europe as "weak in the knees." Spain's Sunday election reinforces this impression. The growing gulf between Americans and Europeans has everything to do with a split over fundamental values. Europe is more like the American left in following a path once described by James Burnham as "The Suicide of the West." European Commission President Romano Prodi said on Monday that America's use of force to defeat terrorism wasn't working. "It is clear that force alone cannot win the fight against terrorism," he explained. "Europe's response must be more wide-ranging than the American reaction." According to Prodi a "soft security" response is needed. He also explained that Russia, Morocco and Libya must not be "isolated."
Prodi's type of thinking has a large following in Europe, perhaps because Europe is slipping, desperate to make a deal, tangled and choking on the complexities of unification. Europe wants to grow old and senile in peace; so Europeans must be careful not to anger the Muslim world. After all, who but Arabs and Turks will be changing Europe's collective bedpan in thirty years? The complexities here are many, but we may reduce Europe's problem to one point: Unless Europe returns to traditional values, starts having babies, and gives up welfare statism, European dependence on Islam will grow - and Muslims will inherit Europe by default. It is no secret that Europe is failing to keep Islamists out. A new report by Matthew Levitt and Assaf Moghadam claims that Islamist groups have converted Germany into a base for terrorist operations. According to Levitt and Moghadam the Muslim Brotherhood and the Lebanese-based Hizbullah have an estimated 2,000 members in Germany. French vulnerability is also felt as France is threatened by attacks similar to those in Spain. A Chechen terrorist, supposedly responsible for Moscow's theatre hostage crisis of 2002, has threatened France with a wave of terror. (A pro-Chechen Web site claims that Russian intelligence is actually behind this threat.)
Aside from the growing threat of terrorism in Europe, there is another question that appears on the horizon. It is the question of democracy's durability - with Spain as a case in point.
The Chairman of the House Select Committee on Homeland Security, Rep. Chris Cox, wrote an interesting commentary in Tuesday's Wall Street Journal Online with the title "A Spanish Surrender?" He asked the following question: "Have terrorists succeeded in changing the course of Spanish democracy?" Mr. Cox noted that, "terrorists need not limit themselves to intimidating individual politicians or judges" because now it is possible to intimidate the population of an entire country "prior to an election." He further suggested that, "America's own elections must now be considered targets."
Many assume that terrorist carnage on the eve of elections would strengthen President Bush's chances for reelection. People tend to rally behind a national leader in times of trouble. But the psychological results of terror are not always straightforward as the Spanish situation shows. Public reactions are variable. The shock of death and mayhem may serve to discredit a government's policies, or bring stubborn adherence to them.
