The New York Daily News claims that Osama bin Laden is "nearly broke." Supposedly the al Qaeda leader has little to work with. This rosy headline, however, is contradicted by America's elevated state of alert. The U.S. government is bracing for a new round of terror attacks. In early May a Saudi newspaper reported that al Qaeda had adopted a new and impenetrable structure for carrying out operations against the US. "An attack against America is inevitable," said the weekly al Majallah, quoting a terrorist source. "This attack will be on the scale of September 11."
On May 25 a Pentagon report told Congress that Osama bin Laden's network has a sophisticated biological-weapons program and could easily acquire chemical weapons. The Pentagon report stated: "The relative ease of producing some chemical or biological agents has increased concern that their use may become more attractive to terrorist groups intent on causing panic or inflicting large numbers of casualties." The report further stated that "entities in Russia and China" are the principal sources of WMD technology and equipment exported to rogue states and associated terror organizations.
But terrorism - supplied and supported by Russia and China - is not the only mass destruction threat to America. On May 22 a RAND Corporation report warned that Russia is still a serious threat to the United States. (See Rand article). According to RAND, the accidental or unauthorized launching of Russian ICBMs at American targets is a very real possibility. The RAND study also acknowledged that U.S.-Russian relations have not improved since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Furthermore, Russia's reliance on its Strategic Rocket Forces to compensate for conventional military inadequacies adds to the danger. America's advantage in precision weapons can only be neutralized by nuclear strikes that would level the playing field. According to the RAND study, in a crisis situation "the incentive (for Moscow) is to launch quickly - use it or lose it."
The RAND report also commented on "the breakdown of order in Russia, economic difficulties, and low morale of its military personnel and the rise of organized crime...." The report missed the fact that many Russian criminals work in league with Moscow's security services. As in the case of China, the Kremlin sees many criminal organizations as "patriotic." The RAND report also failed to discuss the general tendency of Russian policy, which is to break down the U.S. alliance system with diplomatic and economic levers, and to build a new anti-American alliance in its place, while encircling the U.S. in a joint effort with China that involves the infiltration of Canada and a major communist push in Latin America. This strategic encirclement involves Venezuela, Brazil, Ecuador, Panama and Canada (see, especially, the secret RCMP-CSIS report on Chinese infiltration of Canada).
Backstopping a grand campaign of subversion and diplomacy, Russia's nuclear arsenal is not creaky or dilapidated. Already this arsenal contains the world's most advanced nuclear missile, the SS-27 road mobile ICBM. America has nothing comparable in its arsenal. On May 16 Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia will continue to modernize its nuclear forces. Americans ought to ask why Russia, a poor country with serious economic problems, continues to invest billions in its nuclear arsenal.
Putin has also announced plans to expand Russia's military presence in Central Asia, to shorten the term of military service for conscripts, to increase the number of military professionals in the armed forces, to accelerate the production of a new generation of advanced conventional weapons and to enhance military cooperation with the Peoples Republic of China.
The Chinese, in their turn, are working closely with the North Koreans, who recently thumbed their nose at the United States by announcing their intention to export nuclear weapons to whomever they like. A meeting between high level Chinese and North Korean military officials recently took place in Beijing. The topics discussed were secret. The atmosphere was friendly. China continues to supply North Korea with arms and refuses to put pressure on North Korea at the request of the United States.
Continuing its own military buildup, China recently announced its development of a new long-range cruise missile. The missile is larger than the U.S. Navy's Tomahawk missile. The Chinese weapon, which has yet to be flight-tested, is said to use technologies stolen from the United States. It is reported that Chinese bombers have been outfitted to carry the new missile when it is finally deployed.
Of equal interest, China is developing a new heavy tank with Russian technology. According to Jane's Defence Weekly, the new tank will be the most powerful in the world. Armed with an automatic 152 mm gun, a thermal sighting system and more, this armored beast will be able to hit targets while moving. In contrast, the U.S. Abrams tank is armed with a 120 mm gun and is manually loaded.
The United States faces growing threats on a number of fronts. Smaller powers like Iran and North Korea, aligned with Russia and China, are ready and willing to provoke the Bush administration. On April 23 a New York Times headline reported, "Iran Is Said to Send Agents Into South Iraq." According to Times government sources, Iranian-trained agents have been pouring into Iraq since mid-April. A militia organized by the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq is behind the activity. Calling itself the Badr Brigade, the militia is headquartered in Tehran. The danger is serious because of Iraq's large Shiite population. By stirring up local religious sentiment, the Badr Brigade and the Iranian government hope to thwart America's strategy of building a model democracy in the Gulf.
Adding to this picture, American soldiers are still being killed in Iraq. Iran is not only connected with these deaths, but Iran has also been linked to a recent terror attack on the Saudi capital. At present, America forces are tied up occupying Iraq and watching North Korea. Tehran knows that America is unable to organize an invasion of its territory at this time. America's likely response will be an attempt to encourage dissent and unrest in Iran. But will such an attempt prove successful?
There is also a conflict developing between the U.S. and communist Cuba. In a surprise statement made on Cuban Independence Day, President Bush committed himself to overthrowing Castro. The details of Bush's statement are as follows: Larry Klayman of Judicial Watch recently arranged a meeting between the president and the families of jailed Cuban dissidents. In a surprise statement to the families of the dissidents, President Bush said, "We will liberate Cuba." He also said, "We will not abandon you." (See Judicial Watch article). It now appears that the War on Terror has merged with a war on totalitarianism. President Bush intends to overturn the Iranian regime and the Cuban regime. As Moscow and Beijing support these regimes from behind the scenes, the course of a larger conflict can be discerned. Washington's intentions toward Cuba and Iran must inevitably lead to direct conflict with the Russian-China alliance.
As these words are written, giant machines are digging ABM missile emplacements in Alaska. President Bush has announced that by Sept. 30, 2004, a United States national missile defense system will be in place. The importance of this defense system cannot be understated. As the world grows more dangerous, as hostile states prepare for war, the United States has no choice but to react - defensively and offensively. But does the Bush administration understand that the threat goes far beyond Iran, North Korea and Cuba?
