* Comments on Browning Newsletter July 2011 by William Houston written for Halkin Services Ltd.
In 1995 Little Brown published Riding the Business Cycle that described the forces acting on the world and their likely impact based on history; I mistakenly believed that the crunch would occur in the 1990s which, had it done so, would have prevented politicians creating even more debt. The first rhythm is a climatic 178.8-year cycle generated by movements in the solar system that reduces the sun’s output and causes extreme seismic action; we are seeing both now. The second is a debt cycle with a duration of between 45 and 70 years that is creating powerful deflationary forces; we are experiencing these too. The third is a cycle of conflicts for which I pray we may be spared but that is the unfortunate outcome of the previous rhythms. I now believe we have passed the tipping point when only unconventional remedies will work. It will require the highest possible combination of political and managerial talent to get us out of this mess.
Volcanic action
Evelyn devotes much of the newsletter to remind us of the eruptive power of these highly disruptive natural events caused be the forces mentioned earlier and lists at least five that have gone off since Alaska’s Mount Redoubt in March 2099; the most recent being Grimsvötn in Iceland and Puyehue-Cordon Caulle in Chile. She also reminds us that while at the equator an eruption enters the stratosphere at over 10 miles, the atmosphere flattens towards the poles where the stratosphere starts at only 5 miles (>25,000 ft). Once there the dust and gases, unaffected by terrestrial weather, circle the earth and shield the sunlight for possibly several years. Sulphur dioxide reacts with the ozone layer and water vapour to form sulphuric acid lattices which effectively shields the sunlight making the Arctic region much cooler than usual
Arctic Oscillation
Although she does not mention it, the negative oscillation – that caused such cold last winter – is likely to re-occur this winter for the same conditions. This was the low pressure over the warm Atlantic and the high pressure over cooler polar vortex deflecting the cold air south. This has a devastating impact on the great continents for there is tremendous precipitation and snow where the warm air meets the cold air from the north; Britain will not be immune!
La Niña
This large event that lowered the temperature of the huge Pacific and caused such devastation in flooding and aridity in Somalia and China (part of the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation PDO) officially ended in May. However a new event, all part of the PDO, is scheduled around the fall of 2011.
Solar output
Evelyn is interesting about sunspots caused by the tangling ofthe sun’s magnetic fields. These occur as black spots either side of the sun’s equator then move to the centre over the course of eleven years. These have a polarity that changes over a complete evolution of 22 years known as the Hale Cycle; the latest #24 is the lowest for decades and is likely to be the start of another minimum that could last many years – as they did four times since 1000 AD. However there is a paradox. The Max Planck solar institute in Germany warn us that before minimum sunspots we are likely to feel the impact of a peak solar output and flares, the highest for a thousand years; historically these have damaged satellite and terrestrial communication and power systems.
Riding the Business Cycle "Little Brown 1994 Future Storm" Harriman House 2006* Walter Harrowing House 2008* Co-authored with Robin Griffiths
Also check our related Financial Sense Newshour interview: William Houston & Robin Griffiths Discuss Water: The Final Resource
