Crash in ECRI's WLI Is Forecasting Double-Dip Recession and Worse
In the economic forecasting business there are leaders and there are laggards. Please look at the attached graph, generated from Economic Cycles Research Institute’s Weekly Leading Index that shows how fast the index has tumbled, falling like a rock. A decline of 10.6 points, or -7.9%, over a 4-week period has never happened before. The graph shows decline over a 13-week period and in the coming weeks the current waterfall decline is likely to exceed the low shown in the graph during 2008. Don’t expect ECRI’s Guru Lakshman Achuthan and other e-con-meisters to forecast the double-dip until we are already in the renewed recession, most likely to begin in 2010Q4 (there is some probability that it could begin during 2010Q3), that would be the beginning of depression in the US followed by a global depression, China included. It would be a deflationary depression as I have been forecasting for a long time. Like in 2008, the US Treasury bonds should outperform the Scam Market by more than 50% for the 12-month period beginning in May 2010. There is also a very high probability of 20-30% decline in high-priced homes, especially, in areas like Silicon Valley where home prices in expensive zip codes are highly dependent of the Scam Market, over the next 12-18 months. The US economy is being managed, or more like manipulated, by the most incompetent people in US history. Bernanke has a proven record of incomopetence and Obama knows nothing about producing wealth. These gangsters only know about stealing money from the producers and handing it to the crooks. Play safe!