Dissecting the Soft-Landing Thesis, 1994 Analog

March 19, 2024 – Many on Wall Street are comparing the current investment environment to what the US experienced in the early to mid-90s, particularly with the soft landing of 1994. The Fed raised rates then, as we see today, but growth picked back up and eventually culminated in the tech bubble years later and another recession. Thus, if the 1994 soft landing analog fits, that would imply many more years of record growth and perhaps a bubble in the tech sector still in its very early stages. Recently, Variant Perception did a deep dive into this thesis and we are joined today by one of their analysts, Scott Freeman, to discuss the results of their fascinating study.

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Mentioned during today's show:

state level unemployment
Source: Bloomberg, Financial Sense Wealth Management
Source: Variant Perception
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