Gary Shilling PhD's Contributions

Gary Shilling: The US Has Entered a Recession

Jun 11 – On today’s edition of FS Insider Jim Puplava interviews A. Gary Shilling who says the U.S. entered a recession in the second quarter this year. He explains why he expects it to be a mild recession and outlines the potential crises he sees on the horizon

Shilling: A U.S. Recession May Have Started This Quarter

May 23 – A U.S. recession probably started in the current quarter. First quarter real GDP growth, 3.2% at annual rates, was temporarily inflated by a jump in inventories, which contributed 0.65 percentage point to growth. This was no doubt unintended

Shilling: Stocks Are Very Expensive and Deflationary Forces Are Building

May 10 – Stocks are very expensive in relation to corporate earnings. Even if rapid economic and profits growth resumes after the next recession, a secular decline in price-to-earnings ratios is likely to mute stock performance. Prof. Robert Shiller’s cyclically-adjusted...

Gary Shilling: Recession Signals Piling Up

Mar 29 – Recently, others are joining us in forecasting a recession, or at least entertaining a growing probability of one. Of those, few also believe it will commence this year while we continue to rate a business downturn starting in 2019 as...

Is This the Beginning of a Massive Dollar Run?

Mar 7 – Some 88% of all currency transactions globally involve the buck. The euro is a distant second at 31%, the Japanese yen is third at 22% and the Chinese yuan is involved in only 4%, not much more than the Mexican peso’s 2.2% despite...

Gary Shilling Sees Rising Risk of Recession

Jan 17 – Financial analyst and commentator A. Gary Shilling talks with Jim Puplava about his 13 indicators for recession, and says we’re only missing two factors for a recession. The last two pieces of the puzzle...

Gary Shilling on Making the "Greatest Trade Ever"

Sep 20 – Financial analyst and commentator A. Gary Shilling tells the behind-the-scenes story on how he made a 1400% return by partnering with legendary investor and hedge fund manager John Paulson in what is widely referred to as "the greatest trade...

Gary Shilling Sees No Bubble in Housing

Jun 22 – In today’s FS Insider, Jim Puplava and Gary Shilling discuss his recent Insight newsletter and why he believes we're not in a housing bubble. Real estate prices are still likely to head higher. Shilling also provides his view...

Why the U.S. Will Win a Trade War With China

By Gary Shilling – When supply is plentiful, the buyer has more power than the seller. That’s certainly true in the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China. And a trade confrontation already exists so the important question is, will it escalate to the level...

Debt, 10 Years After the Bear Bust

By Gary Shilling – Leveraged loans, low-quality vehicles used to finance corporate takeovers, hit a new high of $1.6 trillion last year and investors are increasingly willing to buy “covenant-lite” loans with few caveats to prevent egregious behavior by borrowers...

Trade Wars and the US Dollar

By Gary Shilling – Trump understands that, in a world of surpluses, the buyer, not the seller, has the upper hand. And the U.S. is the absorber of the world’s excess goods and services for which there are no other major markets. Add in Trump’s zeal for deals and...

Gary Shilling on Death by a Thousand Cuts

Feb 16 – FS Insider interviews Gary Shilling to discuss his most recent Insight newsletter on risks to the current market and economy, his concerns over Social Security, Medicare, and when these programs are likely to...

Global Labor and Capacity

By Gary Shilling – The Fed is thoroughly convinced that the headline unemployment rate, now 4.2%, is so low that it will soon spawn significant wage inflation that, if left unchecked, will spread throughout the economy. The central bankers fervently believe...

Doubling Down on Deflationary Forces

By A. Gary Shilling – Most forecasters, including the Fed, continue to look in vain for significant inflation generated by wage jumps. They don't take into account the depressing effects on compensation of globalization and the resulting large...

Gary Shilling on Why He’s Doubling Down on Deflation

Oct 27 – In today’s FS Insider, Jim Puplava and Gary Shilling discuss his recent Insight newsletter, Doubling Down on Deflationary Forces, looking on the long-term forces conspiring against inflation—automation, globalization...

Gary Shilling and Ed Easterling

Jul 1 – Today, we are airing two previous FS Insider interviews from May and June where we interviewed well-known guests, Ed Easterling and Gary Shilling, on market valuations, expected returns, flawed assumptions...

Gary Shilling on US Debt Bomb, Financial Shocks

Jun 9 – In today’s FS Insider, we are airing part of a recent conversation with Gary Shilling on his most recent June Insight newsletter examining US debt, government interest costs, the events that might cause a “US debt bomb” to explode, and...

Gary Shilling: US Holds Upper Hand in Trade Environment

Feb 18 – In this hour long conversation, Gary Shilling of A. Gary Shilling & Co. and Jim Puplava discuss trade, China, the US dollar, emerging markets, infrastructure spending, monetary policy, as well as Gary’s outlook for stocks...

An In-Depth Discussion With Dr. Gary Shilling

Sep 3 – Jim is pleased to welcome back Gary Shilling Ph.D., President at A Gary Shilling & Co and publisher of the newsletter Insight. Jim and Gary cover a wide variety of issues. Gary notes that global economic weakness may force the Federal Reserve...

Dr. Gary Shilling: The End of Growth – Deleveraging Continues Globally

Jun 24 – Jim welcomes Gary Shilling PhD, President of A Gary Shilling & Co, publisher of Insight and author of The Age of Deleveraging. Gary believes that global growth will be sluggish in the years ahead, as the deleveraging process...

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