Doug Short's Contributions

March Consumer Confidence Highest Since 2000

The latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through March 16. The headline number of 125.6 was a sharp increase from the final reading of 116.1 for February, an upward revision...

ECRI Weekly Leading Index: "Disentangling Cyclical from Structural"

Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 145.0, up 0.4 from the previous week. It is currently at an all-time high. Year-over-year the four-week...

The Big Four Economic Indicators: A December Bounce

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as...

The Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Personal Income in November

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.

Is the US Workforce Nearing Full Recovery? Don't Trust the Unemployment Rate for the Answer!

We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include last week's Employment Report for November. The unemployment rate beat expectations by dropping from 4.9% to 4.6%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs...

A New Look - NYSE Margin Debt and the Market

The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYX data website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let's examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt...

The Big Four Economic Indicators: October Industrial Production Disappoints ... Again

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.

The Big Four Economic Indicators: October Nonfarm Employment

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.

Margin Debt Shoots Up, Back Near All-Time Highs

The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYX data website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let's examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt...

Q3 GDP Advance Estimate: A Surprisingly Strong 2.9%

The Advance Estimate for Q3 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 2.9%, a surprisingly large increase over the 1.4% Third Estimate of Q2. The latest number exceeded mainstream estimates. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow™ forecast...

Conference Board Leading Economic Index Increased in September

The Latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for September increased 0.2 percent to 124.4 from August's 124.1. The latest indicator value came in at the month-over-month percent forecast by Investing.com.

The Big Four Economic Indicators: Industrial Production Rises Slightly

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as...

The Labor Market Conditions Index Goes Further Negative

Following the somewhat disappointing jobs report for September, the latest update of the Labor Market Conditions Index has slipped further into negative territory. The LMCI is a relatively recent indicator developed by Federal Reserve...

The Big Four Economic Indicators: September Nonfarm Employment

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they...

ECRI Weekly Leading Index: "Fed Moves in Mysterious Ways"

Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 139.2, up 0.2 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is...

Margin Debt and the S&P 500 – Divergence Continues

The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYX data website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let's examine the numbers and study the relationship between...

ISM Non-Manufacturing: A Stunning September PMI Bounce

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has now released the September Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), also known as the ISM Services PMI. The headline Composite Index is at 57.1 percent...

Household Net Worth: The “Real” Story

Let's take a long-term view of household net worth from the latest Z.1 release. A quick glance at the complete data series shows a distinct bubble in net worth that peaked in Q4 2007 with a trough in Q1 2009, the same quarter the stock market bottomed.

US Consumer Confidence Strongly Beats Expectations

The latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through August 18. The headline number of 101.1 was a solid increase from the final reading of 96.7 for July, a downward revision from 97.3.

The Big Four Economic Indicators: Industrial Production Rebound Accelerates

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as...

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