Doug Short's Contributions

NFIB: Small Business Survey "Just Treading Water"

The latest issue of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends is out today. The headline number for February came in at 92.9, down 1.0 from the previous month's 93.9. The index is at the 17th percentile in this series.

ISM Non-Manufacturing: PMI Growth Continues at Slower Rate

Today the Institute for Supply Management published its latest Non-Manufacturing Report. The headline NMI Composite Index is at 53.4 percent, up 0.1 percent from last month's seasonally adjusted 53.4 percent.

A Bear Market for Most Global Indexes

The traditional definitions of a "market correction" and a "bear market" are 10% and 20% declines, respectively. All eight indexes on our global watch list have been in correction territory, and as of the end of last week, seven of the eight...

NYSE Margin Debt Renews Its Decline

The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYXdata website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let's examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt...

The Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Personal Income for November

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.

The Big Four Economic Indicators: November Real Retail Sales

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.

The Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Personal Income for October

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.

The Big Four Economic Indicators: October Industrial Production Contracts Again

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.

Conference Board Leading Economic Index Declined in September

The Latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for September is now available. The index decreased 0.2 percent from a revised August 123.5 to today's 123.3. The latest indicator value came in below...

The Big Four Economic Indicators: September Real Retail Sales Continue to Show Growth

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about...

A Look at Long-Term Trends in Employment by Age Group

The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the Civilian Labor Force (people age 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population...

Brace Yourself: Our Latest Look at Student Debt

College Tuition and Fees constitute one of the biggest threats to our economic outlook. Here is a chart of data from the relevant Consumer Price Index sub-component reaching back to 1978, the earliest year Uncle...

Conference Board Leading Economic Index Sees Fractional Increase in August

The Latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for August is now available. The index increased 0.1 percent from a revised July 123.6 to today's 123.7. The latest indicator value came in below the 0.2 percent...

The Big Four Economic Indicators: August Real Retail Sales Continue to Show Growth

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is...

ISM Non-Manufacturing: Continued Growth at a Slower Rate

Today the Institute for Supply Management published its latest Non-Manufacturing Report. The headline NMI Composite Index is at 59.0 percent, down 1.3 percent from last month's 60.3 percent.Today's number came in above the Investing.com forecast of 56.1 percent.

The Big Four Economic Indicators: Close to New All-Time High

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as...

Conference Board Leading Economic Index Sees Fractional Decline in July

The Latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for July is now available. The index dropped 0.2 percent, which follows a 0.6 percent May increase. The latest indicator value came in below the 0.2...

The Big Four Economic Indicators: July Real Retail Sales Show Improvement

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is...

Job Openings & Labor Turnover: The Latest Clues to the Business Cycle

The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary), data through June, is now available. The first chart below shows four of the headline components of the overall series, which the BLS began tracking...

ISM Services Index Surges to 10-Year High; Sees Pickup in Growth at a Faster Rate

Today the Institute for Supply Management published its latest Non-Manufacturing Report. The headline NMI Composite Index is at 60.3 percent, up 4.3 percent from last month's 56 percent. Today's number...

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