Dwaine van Vuuren's Contributions

Are Trade War Concerns Valid?

Oct 15 – It appears U.S investors’ concerns with global trade wars are dominating U.S. stock market direction for the last two years. This is with valid reason, as prior research (Global Economy affects U.S stock market returns) has pointed out...

Fed Should Be Cutting Rates and Starting a New Easing Cycle, Models Show

Jun 12 – It is quite possible that the majority of market participants are underestimating the extent and duration of the current rate-tightening cycle. Clearly one could now deduce that we are indeed “overdue” a fed funds rate decrease, or a new easing cycle!

U.S. Stock Market Valuations Continue to Warn

Mar 11 – We have updated the RecessionALERT Valuation Index (RAVI) forecast models for the SP500 using fourth quarter 2018 data. Stock market valuations continue to pose a “clear and present danger” to positive economic...

Yield Curve Pointing Towards 2019 Market Peak

Feb 26 – As a matter of interest, 60% of all 10 possible term-spreads have now inverted, as shown below with our average yield curve composite of all 10 term-spreads. All the forecast dates have moved forward by 1 month as the yield curve continues to print below...

Yield Curve Forecasting 2020 Recession

By Dwaine Van Vuuren – There is a lot of focus on the U.S. yield curve at the moment given its relentless move toward inversion (when short-term rates are higher than long-term rates). Can the history of the yield curve provide for useful forecasting...

Recession Alert: World Headed for Cyclical Slowdown

By Dwaine Van Vuuren – Despite the U.S. leading economic indicators appearing healthy, the global economy appears to be headed for a slow down, with only 34% of the 40 countries we track having leading economic indicators (LEI’s) signalling growth ahead...

Labor Market Not as Strong as You Think

The strength of the labor market is constantly being trotted out in defense of the robust status of the US economy, but broad sets of labor data show this not to be the case. First, let us examine a very broad US labor market growth metric...

Valuation Estimate of SP500 2015 Returns: 2,246 Target

The RecessionALERT Valuation Index (RAVI) is a multifactor valuation model that examines cyclically adjusted trailing SP-500 earnings (various multi-decade horizons), the SP-500 total-return index level, total stock market capitalization...

Yellen’s Labor Dashboard Suggests Tightening in 2016

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen recently used her “jobs data dashboard” to justify the Fed’s easy money policies and to argue there’s still considerable slack in the labor market five years after the recession’s end.

U.S Future Economic Outlook Improves

The RecessionALERT monthly U.S Leading Growth Index (USMLI) is an index that attempts to capture future (6-9 months) U.S economic growth. The USMLI posted a modest rise in November, after 5 months of declines, pointing to an improved outlook for economic growth.

Seasonality Approaching its Worst Point

We have entered the Mid-Term cycle in the Quadrennial Presidential Cycle, in which the months April through to September typically represent the worst SP-500 seasonal period for the entire 4 year cycle...

Global Economy Rebounds Into Growth Territory

It does not matter which way you look at it – the global economy has rebounded into growth territory from which surely could have been classified as a World Recession a few quarters ago.

Seven Paw-Prints of the Bear

For decades, investors have sought out methods to detect oncoming bear markets. With this current bull market now in its 5th year the subject has become even more topical...

Market Update

The SuperIndex has jumped smartly this week from mostly positive data from eLEI and the ISM report.

Don’t Count on FED Tapering Any Time Soon

Whilst the market has sold off in the expectation of FED tapering in the face of an improving economy, and co-incident economic data continues to show improvement, the leading data is likely to do otherwise in the coming months.

World Recession Update – May 2013

There are a number of interesting observations we can make this month. The first is that whilst the percentage of economies experiencing a single quarters negative growth seems to have subsided from a meteorite rise.

Atypical Global Recovery Underway

Since we last reported on the current Global Recession, the Global Leading Economic Indicator (GLEI) rose for the month of March, but is following an atypical growth pattern coming out of recession, with a slope far shallower than the normal expected rebound.

Dwaine Van Vuuren: No Recession in Sight for the US

Apr 17 – Jim welcomes Dwaine Van Vuuren, CEO at Recession Alert in South Africa. Dwaine is a full-time trader specializing in real-time recession dating models. According to his models and index, Dwaine sees no recession in...

World Recession Update

We have all the numbers in for quarter-on-quarter GDP growth for Q4-2012 from around the world. Since our last report in February “World plunges into recession”, the percentage of countries with negative q-on-q GDP growth (1 and 2 consecutive quarters) have improved somewhat as more countries came into the sample and GDP’s revised upwards.

Global Bottom or Double-Dip?

Our prior post titled “World Recession Update” depicted the percentage of 41 countries tracked around the globe that were printing 1 or 2 consecutive negative quarters of GDP growth.

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