Increasing global trade is not the primary culprit in the decline in US manufacturing employment. Again, output is at an ATH. Manufacturing jobs have fallen with new technology and other means for increasing productivity. The number of employees needed to make the same...
The following table lists every newly elected president in the past 120 years and the time between their inauguration and the start of the next recession. Based on this, the next recession either started a year ago or will not occur at all during the Trump presidency...
The small cap index is at a new all-time high today, having gained more than 13% in the past 10 days. That type of price behavior has historically been very bullish. Add to that (a) positive seasonality and (b) bearish...
Nov 16 – Urban Carmel, lead writer and analyst at The Fat Pitch, goes in-depth with FS Insider to discuss US debt levels at the government, corporate, and household level and how the US compares to other countries in terms of debt...
Demographics is a key driver of economic growth. Most people focus on the aging of the Boomer generation. But the working-age population in the US has been growing almost as fast as the retirement of Boomers. Millennials are now the largest living generation...
The rising price of copper is probably a good sign that the global economy is non-recessionary. When copper has risen, so has GDP. But the converse is not true: falling copper prices have not signaled a slump in the economy.
The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. That said, there are some signs of weakness creeping into the data.
The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. Overall, the main positives from the recent data are in employment...
Sep 22 – Where does the US economy stand today? Is a recession imminent? Can we trust the economic statistics? Urban Carmel, writer for The Fat Pitch, provides his comprehensive outlook on current and future trends, arguing that...
The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. Overall, the main positives from the recent data are in employment...
The trend in equities continues to be higher, even a very short term basis. As equity prices move higher, volatility is compressing. That, on its own, is not bearish, as volatility can stay low for months as equities grind higher.
Since February, US equities have risen nearly 20%. Equities outside the US have risen 12%. A tailwind for this rally has been the bearish positioning of investors, with fund managers' cash in February at the highest level
The macro data from the past month continues to point to positive but sluggish growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. That said, data over the past month was on the weak end.
The "summer months" start next week. The period from May through October is known as the "worst 6 months" of the year for stocks. True, the probability of a truly bad month is higher and the probability of a really great stretch...
SPY made a new all-time high on Tuesday despite falling margin debt, the end of QE, negative household fund flows, flat profit growth and a host of other reasons. In other words, exactly as a rationale and objective investor...
The macro data from the past month continues to point to positive but sluggish growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The main positives are in employment, consumption growth and housing...
As of last Friday, equities rose for a fifth week in a row. In many important ways, the current uptrend does not fit the profile of a bear market rally. That means that further gains lie ahead and a return to the February low is unlikely. On a shorter...
The macro data from the past month continues to point to positive but sluggish growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The main positives are in employment, consumption growth and housing...
Recent sentiment data shows investors to be more pessimistic than they have been in at least 4 years. Some sentiment data is the most extreme in 14 years. A recent post on this here. The rub with this data is this: some of these sentiment...
US equities have dropped some 10% in the past two weeks, returning to their August/September lows. This has triggered a bearish technical pattern. Is the stock market signaling a recession and the start of a bear market? Risk has clearly increased...
