Urban Carmel's Contributions

By Urban Carmel – The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The bond market agrees with...

By Urban Carmel – The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The bond market agrees with the macro...

By Urban Carmel – The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The bond market agrees with the macro data.

By Urban Carmel – The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The bond market agrees with the macro data.

By Urban Carmel – Take the US tech bubble of the 1990s, add the subsequent real estate bubble of the 2000s, multiply by two, and you have a good approximation of the events leading to Japan's stock market crash in 1990.

By Urban Carmel – In 1987, the stock market crashed. In 2013, the stock market was just like 1987. In 2014, the stock market was just like 1987. In 2016, the stock market was just like 1987. Today, the stock market is just like 1987. Today is not just like 1987...

Investors are clearly shifting away from actively managed funds to those based on index strategies. Only time will tell, but this has the look of a durable, secular change in investment management. But much of the perceived threat to the market...

he macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. One concern in recent months had been housing, but revised data shows...

US equities ended the month of April above or near new all-time highs. There are no significant extremes that suggest the trend higher will suddenly end. But the upcoming "summer months" are normally marked by lower price...

The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. One concern in recent months had been housing, but revised data shows...

A tailwind for the rally over the past year has been the bearish positioning of investors, with fund managers persistently shunning equities in exchange for holding cash. Sentiment has turned bullish. Optimism towards the economy has...

Households have 30% of their financial assets in equities, the same proportion as they held at bull market peaks in the 1960s and in 2007. Does this mean another bear market is imminent? No. Two of the last three times the purportedly...

The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. One concern in recent months has been housing, but revised data shows...

2017 is off to a remarkably similar start to 2013. No two years are ever exactly the same, so there's no reason to suggest that 2017 will repeat the 30% gains achieved in 2013. But many of the technical and fundamental similarities...

In the past year, S&P profits have grown 46% yoy. Sales are 4.5% higher. By some measures, profit margins are back at their prior highs. This is a remarkable turnaround from a year ago when profits had declined by 15% and most investors...

The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. That said, there are some signs of weakness creeping into the data.

Global equities are more than 20% higher than in February. A tailwind for this rally has been the bearish positioning of investors, with fund managers persistently shunning equities in exchange for holding cash.

The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. That said, there are some signs of weakness creeping into the data.