August summer vacations leave little money and opportunity to vice (yup, it’s a verb). Additionally, even more travel means even less vicing. Americans have become more focused on vacations, to the detriment of other forms of consumer spending.
Sep 23 – Cris welcomes Andrew Zatlin of Moneyball Economics. Andrew warns of two important waves converging on the US heading into 2016 that he believes will lead to a bear market and recession. He tells FS Insider...
A hallmark of every recession has been the surge in initial jobless claims. Specifically, more claims are filed than the previous year. The opposite is also true: recoveries are led by a drop in claims year over year.
Last month in our Vice Index update, we noted the following: The Vice Index points to continued consumer strength through 3Q. The Vice Index is doubling down on consumer strength. While it shows a slight dip...
Jobless claims are a superior indicator for the economy not only because they lead economic growth and correlate so closely with it, but they also get reported much earlier. The high concentration of the US economy is one...
Jul 7 – Corporations are sitting on large piles of cash and rather than using their profits to hire employees, build factories, or buy equipment, they are buying back shares of their own stock instead. Is this a conspiracy to drive...
The economic outlook for Japan is not pretty. The country, once the poster child for technological advancement and export strength, has been struggling in both areas. Take a look at some of the technical analysis below which...
From Goldman to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, we keep hearing voices complaining about corporate share buybacks. They worry that there hasn’t been enough capital expenditures, or CAPEX.
The Vice Index has been revised and is now chained to January 2009. The data itself goes back to 1993. Vice spending is where the desire to spend meets the ability to spend. As the heart of consumer spending...
The great minds in economics can’t seem to agree whether the labor market is showing signs of tightness, or if it’s easing up. If labor is tight and tightening, why aren't wages rising? Why isn't inflation rising more than 2%?
94% of homes received multiple offers in March, up from 88% last year (source: Redfin). Compare that to the national averages of 61%, down from 64% last year. 34% of homes go above asking price.
I’m putting my money where my mouth is. My 401K is entirely in equity market funds and stocks, and will stay there as long as I see the right signals from the economy and bond market. But make no mistake...
Vice spending is one of the most seldom used, but surprisingly accurate leading gauges of consumer strength and the economy. Everyone knows that when consumers have more money in hand, they spend it on fun and luxury goods.
When it comes to Initial Jobless Claims, labor is a leading - not a lagging - indicator. All business investment decisions, from capital to labor, are responses to business expectations of economic growth. So while hiring and firing certainly lag business...
Demand-pull inflation – too much money spent chasing too few goods – should be present by now. An increase in payrolls means more wages. More wages means more retail spending. All three are currently accelerating.
Demand-pull inflation – too much money spent chasing too few goods – should be present by now. An increase in payrolls means more wages. More wages means more retail spending. All three are currently accelerating.
Companies slowed spending in 4Q 2014 largely for opportunistic reasons; particularly to wait for better pricing as commodity/energy deflation worked its way through the economy (price lists tend to get revised in January).
Feb 27 – Cris Sheridan welcomes Andrew Zatlin, Editor at Moneyball Economics. Andrew says new data sources now give us an amazing inside view of the economy like we’ve never had before. Cris and Andrew discuss...
Outdated measurement methodologies used to calculate the unemployment rate and payroll data have encouraged the Fed to broaden its watch-list of labor data. Now the Fed is looking at other benchmarks like...
